Market Roundup 25 April 2024

Thailand’s SET Index closed at 1,364.27 points, increased 3.17 points or 0.23% with a trading value of 41.43 billion baht. The analyst stated that the Thai stock market traded narrowly, as the purchase of hospital stocks kept the market level steady. Investors were awaiting the announcement of PCE figures from the US, as it would indicate the direction of inflation and interest rates in the country.

The analyst expected the market to trade similarly tomorrow, while investors monitored the overall sentiment from the US markets.

 

Goldman Sachs has forecast a 3.1% annualized GDP growth rate for the US economic expansions in a recent report for the first quarter of this year, surpassing the consensus by 0.6 percentage points and the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model by 0.2 percentage points. However, this projection signifies a slowdown from the 4.1% pace seen in the latter half of the previous year.

The above-consensus prediction is attributed to four main factors, including a significant increase in residential investment, a rebound in auto production, a resurgence in manufacturing activity and a continuation of robust consumption growth.

 

President Biden’s plan to elevate capital gains rates has sparked speculation, particularly regarding the purported 44.6% rate included in the Budget of the United States Government for Fiscal Year 2025, which would mark the highest formal federal capital gains rate to date.

However, the 44.6% rate would only be applicable to individuals with taxable income surpassing $1 million and investment income exceeding $400,000, which softens the severity of the policy change compared to the generalized depiction of a 44.6% rate.

The policy aims to create a fairer tax system by narrowing the gap between high earners’ ordinary and investment income. It is an incremental step towards ensuring that affluent individuals contribute proportionately to their substantial financial activities.

Currently, the highest long-term capital gains tax rate in the US is 20%.

 

South Korea experienced robust economic growth in the first quarter of this year, driven by improvements in private consumption, increased construction activities, and consistent exports.

The country’s GDP in 1Q24 expanded by 3.4% year-on-year, marking a notable acceleration from the 2.2% growth seen in the previous quarter and posting the strongest performance since the fourth quarter of 2021, according to preliminary data from the Bank of Korea on Thursday.

Quarter-on-quarter figures also depicted a positive trend, with the economy growing by 1.3% in the January-March period, surpassing the 0.6% expansion recorded in the prior quarter, as reported by the central bank.