Thai Stocks Show Better-Than-Expected Results in 1Q24 as Brokers Upgrade Forecasts

Earnings season for the first quarter of 2024 is coming to a close with list-Thai companies posting better-than-expected profit growth, indicating a positive trend going into the second quarter and onward.


Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS) wrote in its research paper that as of May 16, 2024, 65 of its 67 stocks under coverage have reported 1Q results, which saw healthy growth and strong earnings relative to expectations.

44% of the core earnings in 1Q beat KKPS’ expectations, while 43% was in line and just 13% missed the forecasts. Energy, Telcos, Media, F&B and Healthcare had the best ratios of Beats to Misses.

Aggregate numbers indicate companies will beat current full-year forecasts as 1Q profits of stocks under KKPS’s coverage attribute to 25% of consensus full-year forecasts, roughly in line with the 5-year average, but below the 10-year average. KKPS considers a 25% a good outcome as earnings should increase with a stronger 2H macro outlook.

Additionally, KKPS expected more upgrades will follow following strong 1Q results, seeing the aggregation of its full-year consensus forecasts are too low.


Meanwhile, Bualuang Securities (BLS) wrote that 1Q24 earnings were 14% higher than the broker had anticipated with tourism, transportation, food and packaging sectors performing well in the light of recovering tourism and lower utility costs.

BLS expected industrial-related groups (WHA), tourism and transportation (AOT, CENTEL), ICT (TRUE, ADVANC), consumer (CPALL, CPN) and medical (BH) are those that beat expectations and should see an upward revision in earnings forecasts.