Market Roundup 10 June 2024

Thailand’s SET Index closed at 1,318.57 points, decreased 14.17 points or 1.06% with a trading value of 38.32 billion baht. The analyst stated that the Thai stock market decreased and was in line with the regional markets, as investors raised concerns over the US Federal Reserve’s interest rates decision following stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls data, which raised bond yield and strengthened the US dollar. The Thai market was still pressured by political concerns in the country, while there was some rebound in the afternoon session.

The analyst expected the market to bear some hope for a rebound tomorrow.

 

French President Emmanuel Macron announced on Sunday his decision to dissolve the French parliament and initiate a new legislative nationwide vote following a significant defeat in the EU elections.

The unexpected move came in response to exit poll results showing Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (Rassemblement National, or RN) leading in the polls with 31.5%, compared to Macron’s Renaissance party at 14.5%.

The first round of the parliamentary election is scheduled for June 30, with the second round set for July 7.

 

Revised data reveals that Japan’s economy contracted less than previously reported in the January-March period, boosted by upward revisions to capital spending and inventory figures. This development offers modest backing to the central bank’s intention to raise interest rates later this year.

Japan’s GDP contracted at an annualized rate of 1.8% in Q1, a smaller decline than the 1.9% contraction forecasted by economists. The quarter-on-quarter GDP contraction remained unchanged at 0.5% in price-adjusted terms from the initial reading.

 

Numerous analysts predict that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will maintain its benchmark interest rates at their current 23-year high until at least September due to stagnant progress in addressing inflation and a strong labor market.

Wells Fargo economists highlighted in a recent note that recent data indicates a reduced risk of price acceleration stemming from robust economic activity.

Nonetheless, it is widely anticipated that the FOMC will not change its target range for the federal funds rate of 5.25%-5.50% at the conclusion of its policy meeting on June 12.

 

A Reuters poll of economists indicates that the Bank of Thailand (BOT) is likely to keep its key interest rate at 2.50% for the fourth consecutive meeting on June 12, as 24 out of 27 economists foresee rates remaining stable until the final quarter of the year.

Despite inflation staying below the BOT’s upper limit of 3% for over a year, the Thai baht has depreciated by approximately 6% this year. This development suggests that the central bank may wait for the U.S. Federal Reserve to initiate interest rate cuts before taking similar action.

 

Analysts and developers express doubts over China’s initiative to address massive inventory by repurposing unsold homes into affordable housing, citing concerns about the program’s scope and potential impact on cash-strapped developers.

In response to the property sector crisis, Beijing introduced a 300 billion yuan ($41 billion) lending facility plan last month. This initiative could lead to 500 billion yuan in bank financing for local state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to acquire completed yet unsold homes.

Meanwhile, despite ongoing efforts to stimulate the real estate market, concerns persist about the effectiveness of the program in addressing inventory challenges and supporting struggling developers amid the industry downturn.