Airports of Thailand Public Company Limited (SET: AOT) is attracting renewed optimism from brokers after its decision to grant duty-free operator King Power extended relief on minimum guarantee payments—a move seen as unwinding a key overhang on the stock.
Morgan Stanley has designated AOT an ‘Overweight’ rating, forecasting a near-term rise in share price, with a target of 57 baht per share. The brokerage firm believes that as the duty-free payment risks ease, AOT is poised to outperform in absolute terms over the next 15 days.
Under the new terms, King Power will be able to spread its minimum guarantee payments over eight months, pushing the deadline to October 2025. Nonetheless, King Power is required to pay an interest of 8.844% on overdue amounts every month and provide an extra 1.45 billion baht in collateral to mitigate AOT’s exposure.
As of March 2025, AOT’s receivables stand at around 16 billion baht, and the airport operator continues to book approximately 5 billion baht in concession revenue per quarter.
Morgan Stanley maintains a bullish view on AOT, highlighting its robust infrastructure advantage, stable concession cash flows, and 18%+ ROE, noting the market appears to price in an overly steep decline in duty-free revenue and stagnant passenger service charges for the duration of its concession agreements.
Meanwhile, JPMorgan has taken a more cautious stance, reiterating its ‘Neutral’ rating on AOT. The investment bank acknowledges that the extension and the recently released of King Power’s 2024 financials confirms the likelihood of concession renegotiations for King Power, with terms probably revised lower from FY2026.
Despite AOT’s stock outperforming the broader SET Index by roughly 10% since last week’s lows, JPMorgan is awaiting greater visibility on new concession rates and a demonstrable rebound in tourism—current arrival figures are still down 4.2% compared to the same period last year.
At the end of the trading session on Tuesday, the share price of AOT surged by 1.65% or THB 0.50 to THB 30.75, with a trading value of THB 736.33 million.
