CGS International Securities (Thailand) or CGSI has released its latest analysis, projecting that Advanced Info Service Public Company Limited (SET: ADVANC) will report a 2Q25 net profit of THB 11 billion, up 28.1% YoY and 3.8% QoQ. This growth is underpinned by robust service revenue, effective SG&A cost control, and reduced interest expenses.
Service revenue (excluding interconnection charges) is estimated to increase by 4.8% YoY and 0.6% QoQ. Mobile service revenue is expected to grow 2.9% YoY and 0.1% QoQ, while broadband revenue should see substantial expansion of 9.7% YoY and 2.1% QoQ.
Although revenue from device and SIM sales is forecasted to rise 13.9% YoY, it would decline 20% QoQ due to the low season for device sales. EBITDA is projected to increase 5.9% YoY but fall 1.1% QoQ.
ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) for mobile and broadband is expected to rise, supported by upselling strategies and a lack of industry-wide price wars. CGSI projects prepaid ARPU will climb 5.1% YoY and 0.7% QoQ, while postpaid ARPU will drop 1.6% YoY but rise 0.8% QoQ. Broadband ARPU is seen increasing by 3.8% YoY and 0.4% QoQ.
ADVANC stated that its acquisition of the 2100MHz spectrum on June 29, 2025, will help broaden 4G/5G network coverage. The 2100MHz mid-band spectrum is globally favored, and the company believes the auction price was reasonable and will enhance long-term network quality.
As of 1Q25, ADVANC’s financial position remains strong, with an interest-bearing debt-to-equity ratio of 1.2x and net debt-to-EBITDA of 0.6x. CGSI believes the first payment for the 2100MHz license, scheduled for 3Q25 at THB 7.4 billion, will not affect its interim dividend payout.
CGSI maintains a “Buy” recommendation for ADVANC with a target price of THB 301, based on discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation. Key positives include a lower-than-expected license cost, an average EPS CAGR of 8.9% in 2025–2027, and an attractive dividend yield of 4.5–5.1% per annum. Risks include a potential slowdown in private consumption or renewed price competition in the telecom sector. Upside could come from stronger-than-expected cost controls and further subscriber growth.
