As per an analysis by Krungsri Securities (KSS), Charoen Pokphand Foods Public Company Limited (SET: CPF) is projecting a rebound in swine prices across Thailand, Vietnam, and China in the final quarter of 2025.
The company pointed to seasonal increases in demand following a period of subdued prices in the third quarter, which were attributed to heavy rains and a temporary reduction in slaughtering capacity as Cambodian labor returned home. This situation led to an oversupply of live swine in the market.
Meanwhile, chicken prices are forecast to remain robust, with CPF strategizing to enhance brand value in its processed and ready-to-eat product segments, which offer stronger margins.
CPF management addressed concerns over the import of U.S. swine, clarifying that potential competition is minimal, as source facility inspections are estimated to take at least 1.5 years due to strict regulatory oversight regarding growth hormone usage, reducing the risk of an oversupplied swine sector.
In a move aimed at stabilizing the domestic livestock industry, twelve leading Thai agribusiness firms have signed a memorandum of understanding to delay sow breeding expansion. This is expected to limit supply growth into 2026, thereby supporting a more balanced market and opening opportunities for smaller farmers to re-enter the industry.
Raw material costs remain on a declining trend, underpinned by plentiful supply and robust crop yields. Should Thailand succeed in expanding feed imports from the U.S., CPF anticipates feed costs could decline by as much as THB 1 per kilogram, though regulatory and logistical hurdles still need to be addressed.
Krungsri Securities maintains a positive stance on CPF, citing the anticipated recovery in swine prices, low raw material costs, and diminished risks from U.S. imports.
Looking ahead, the analyst expects the company’s earnings to have peaked in the second quarter, with normalized profit likely to soften in the latter half of the year as swine prices are projected to dip in the third quarter. Overall, full-year normalized profit is forecast to reach THB 36.37 billion, representing a robust 91% increase from the previous year.
As a result, KSS reiterates a ‘Buy’ rating on CPF, with a target price of THB 38.00 per share. CPF will pay an interim dividend of THB 1.00 per share—representing a 4.1% yield—going ex-dividend on August 29, 2025, with payment scheduled for September 12, 2025.
