Morgan Stanley has raised its price target on Apple Inc. (AAPL) from $240 to $298, citing better-than-expected early demand for the iPhone 17 series and growing excitement surrounding the company’s 2026 product launches. The investment bank also increased its bull case valuation to $376, factoring in a potential surge in shipments if foldable models and AI features drive demand further.
The revision comes as Apple’s iPhone 17 cycle appears modestly stronger than originally anticipated. Morgan Stanley noted that market expectations have already incorporated much of the near-term optimism but sees upside risk to future earnings.
For fiscal year 2026, Morgan Stanley boosted its iPhone revenue projection by 4%, attributing the optimism to both higher unit sales (+3%) and improved average selling prices (+1%) based on channel checks suggesting imminent build increases for high-demand models, notably the Pro and Pro Max versions.
The bank now believes the stage is set for up to 250 million iPhone units shipped in fiscal 2027—driven by higher upgrade rates and the launch of Apple’s first foldable iPhone, expected in fall 2026.
The new price target is based on a multiple of 32x Morgan Stanley’s updated FY27 earnings-per-share estimate of $9.30, which is 6% above consensus. The bull case envisions over 270 million iPhone shipments and $10.16 EPS, assuming even greater momentum from foldables and AI capabilities.
Although Morgan Stanley acknowledged that further gains in the stock may be constrained in the short term, it remains overweight on Apple and anticipates further estimate raises as strong upgrade trends play out, the aging installed base accelerates replacement cycles, and new models continue to spark consumer demand.
