Finansia Syrus Securities (FSS) highlighted a mixed outlook for Thailand’s export sector following U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 100% tariff increase on Chinese imports.
The analyst notes that while the move poses clear negative implications for Hana Microelectronics (SET: HANA), it could potentially enhance the competitive position of other key Thai exporters such as i-Tail Corporation (SET: ITC), Asian Alliance International (SET: AAI), and KCE Electronics (SET: KCE).
According to FSS, an escalation in the U.S.-China trade war will be broadly negative for the global economy, cautioning that deteriorating economic conditions in both countries could weigh on Thai exports.
The United States is Thailand’s largest export market, accounting for roughly 18-20% of total export value, followed by China at 11-12%. The impact is not limited to electronics but spans other key sectors, including agriculture, food, and beverages.
Looking at company-specific implications, FSS stated a decline in Chinese exports to the U.S. would directly affect HANA, which receives around 19% of total revenue from its China-based operations. While some HANA customers are shifting production to factories in Thailand and Cambodia, the company is in the process of reducing both its workforce and manufacturing capacity in China.
For Delta Electronics (Thailand) (SET: DELTA), whose exports to China represent about 8.6% of total revenue, the impact should be limited, thanks to the flexibility to relocate production within the parent group, Delta Taiwan.
Meanwhile, Sri Trang Gloves (Thailand) (SET: STGT) faces little impact, as the U.S. has already hiked tariffs on Chinese rubber gloves to 50% in 2025 and will raise them further to 100% in 2026.
On the positive side, the new U.S. tariffs may give Thai exporters a competitive boost over Chinese rivals, particularly in the pet food segment. ITC and AAI, which each derive 50-55% of revenue from the U.S. market, are expected to benefit the most from this development.
KCE may also see some upside. Although it exports 9% of its products to China, its exports to the U.S. are higher at 21-22%. With China serving as a major PCB sector rival, the tariffs could erode China’s competitive edge.
The brokerage firm notes that the new tariffs are scheduled to take effect on November 1, 2025. However, ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and China could still result in further changes before implementation.
