Fitch Ratings projects that the non-performing loan ratio in Thailand’s banking industry will edge up to 3.7% in 2025, from 3.4% this year, before stabilizing in 2026. The credit ratings agency highlighted that stress is particularly evident in the small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) segment, where the impaired-loan ratio reached 7.9% in the first half of 2025, up from 7.2% at the end of last year.
Thai economic growth remains subdued, with the nation’s GDP expected to expand by only 2.2% in 2025, and to slow further to 1.9% in 2026, compared to 2.5% in 2024, according to Fitch’s forecasts. Despite this lackluster outlook, continued low unemployment and a declining trend in interest rates are expected to help support borrowers’ ability to repay loans.
Fitch further noted that domestic banks have proactively reduced exposure to higher-risk clients. Additionally, the sector is seen as having adequate capacity to address bad debts through write-offs.
According to LSEG consensus, SCB X Public Company Limited (SET: SCB) is expected to report THB 29,748 million in non-interest income in 3Q25, representing a drop of 8.85% YoY. Meanwhile, Bangkok Bank (SET: BBL), Kasikornbank (SET: KBANK) and Krung Thai Bank (SET: KTB) are expected to face similar trend as well with a drop of 8.02%, 8.83% and 10.58%, respectively.
