KGI Securities (Thailand) state that PTT Global Chemical Public Company Limited (SET: PTTGC) is expected to report a reduced net loss of THB 2.7 billion for 3Q25, improving from a net loss of THB 19.3 billion in 3Q24 and THB 3.6 billion in 2Q25.
The significant year-on-year improvement is attributed to the absence of two large impairment losses recorded in 3Q24—namely, an THB 8.6 billion loss from Vencorex and an THB 8.9 billion loss from PTT Asahi Chemical (PTTAC).
The narrower loss compared to 2Q25 is expected due to a special gain of THB 650 million from the repurchase of $336 million in U.S. Treasury bonds in September, and a substantial reduction in net stock loss to THB 162 million in 3Q25, down from a THB 1.9 billion net stock loss in 2Q25, following a rise in Dubai crude oil prices from $69.3 per barrel in June to $70 per barrel in September.
Market GRM (Gross Refining Margin) for PTTGC is also forecast to increase slightly by 5% quarter-on-quarter to $5.6 per barrel, supported by wider spreads for jet fuel and diesel.
Nevertheless, the 2026 target price is revised downward to THB 25 (from THB 27), based on an EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.75x, reflecting reduced earnings forecasts. The firm maintains a “Hold” recommendation, though investors are advised to shift focus to refinery stocks while diesel spreads remain strong, buoyed by seasonal winter demand.
Additionally, PTTGC’s refinery is scheduled for planned maintenance shutdown lasting 50 days from mid-October to end-November, which will limit PTTGC’s short-term upside.
Krungsri Securities (KSS) has a negative view on PTTGC’s 3Q25 net loss, projected at THB 2.6 billion. While this marks a recovery from 3Q24, it is below previous estimates due to a worse-than-expected petrochemical product spread, impacted by trade war effects, prompting a downward revision in forecasts.
However, PTTGC’s core operation in the second half of 2025 (which includes major maintenance shutdown) still shows bottoming out from 2H24, with further recovery expected in 2026—supported by reduced fixed costs, no major shutdowns, and increased bargaining power after global producers rationalize output.
Therefore, KSS maintains a “Buy” rating, with a target price of THB 25 (and THB 28 for 2026), viewing PTTGC as resilient through the downcycle and positioned for long-term recovery.
