Kiatnakin Phatra Securities forecasts a robust year-on-year (YoY) earnings growth for Global Power Synergy Public Company Limited (SET: GPSC) in 3Q25, supported by solid improvements in power generation profits and a significant divestment gain. The firm maintains a “Neutral” rating on GPSC, with a price objective (PO) of THB 42.50 and the current share price at THB 42.25.
The broker expects GPSC’s net profit for the quarter to reach THB 1.8 billion, sharply up from THB 770 million in 3Q24. This surge is primarily attributed to higher profits from power generation, cost savings on interest, and a THB 750 million gain from selling a 3% stake in the AVAADA solar farm in India. Excluding foreign exchange effects and power purchase agreement (PPA) amortization, core profit is forecast at THB 1.9 billion, marking a 28% YoY increase.
GPSC’s revenue for 3Q25 is predicted to rise 5% YoY to THB 22 billion, driven by an 84% YoY jump in Independent Power Producer (IPP) revenue to THB 5.8 billion, as dispatched volume is expected to grow 27% YoY. However, cogeneration and VSPP revenues are projected to contract by 5% and 8%, respectively, owing to a decrease in power tariffs and lower energy costs per unit for both gas and coal.
Earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) are estimated to expand 24% YoY to THB 2.7 billion, underpinned by stronger IPP plant availability and a wider cogeneration margin.
Nonetheless, equity income is expected to show a loss of THB 326 million, compared with a THB 30 million profit in 3Q24. While the Xayaburi hydropower plant (XPCL) in Laos should see a recovery following improved water inflow, expected losses at AVAADA and CXFD from reduced sales, FX loss, and a one-time tax expense are likely to weigh on results.
Cumulatively, GPSC’s 9M25 net profit and core profit are forecast to reach THB 5 billion and THB 5.6 billion, up 62% and 19% YoY, respectively, already accounting for 83% of the full-year estimates. The analyst maintains a “Neutral” stance on the stock, citing that the recovery outlook appears largely priced in at current valuations.
