Asia Plus Securities (ASPS) stated that the anticipated “interest rate easing” trend, spurred by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the potential for the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) at the Bank of Thailand to signal a follow-up, could mark a key turning point for the Thai stock market. Currently, however, Thai equities face heavy pressure from domestic politics and flooding, resulting in the largest fund outflows in South Asia, exceeding US$322 million and dragging the market down 3.7% month-to-date (MTD). By contrast, neighboring equity markets have seen support from easing signals, with Indonesia seeing inflows of US$808 million and the Philippines US$109 million, which have driven notable rebounds.
Nonetheless, ASPS sees strong potential for a swift rebound in the Thai market, especially if the flood situation subsides and the MPC gives a clear signal to lower the policy rate. In the short term, ASPS recommends mitigating volatility by accumulating stocks with strong positive factors, such as Home Product Center Public Company Limited (SET: HMPRO), Bangkok Dusit Medical Services Public Company Limited (SET: BDMS), and True Corporation Public Company Limited (SET: TRUE).
Additionally, investors are advised to accumulate high dividend stocks, including Sansiri Public Company Limited (SET: SIRI), AP (Thailand) Public Company Limited (SET: AP), Ichitan Group Public Company Limited (SET: ICHI), Kasikornbank Public Company Limited (SET: KBANK), Krung Thai Bank Public Company Limited (SET: KTB), and Advanced Info Service Public Company Limited (SET: ADVANC).
ASPS also highlighted that sectors underperforming the market in November are Petrochemicals down 19.2%, Construction down 13.6%, Packaging down 11.4%, Finance down 9.2%, Retail/Wholesale Trade down 7.2%, Tourism down 6.1%, Electronics down 6.1%, and Construction Materials down 6.1%. Media lost 5.8%, Energy down 5.0%, Insurance 4.4%, Food 4.1%, and the SET Index itself declined 3.7%.
However, there are sectors outperforming the market this month, including Healthcare/Hospitals down only 3.5%, Agriculture down 3.2%, Real Estate down 2.4%, Transportation down 0.1%, Information and Communication Technology up 0.3%, Automotive up 0.6%, Property Funds & REITs up 0.7%, and Banks up 1.6%.
