Kasikorn Securities (KS) wrote that Airports of Thailand (SET: AOT) has announced adjustments to its duty-free contracts at Suvarnabhumi, Don Mueang, and regional airports.
The revised terms set revenue per head at Suvarnabhumi at THB 232.9 with a 5% annual growth rate, while Don Mueang will have a minimum guarantee (MG) of THB 39,187.76 per square meter per month, and regional airports will see THB 129.67 per head with the same annual growth rate.
The analyst noted that the adjustments are less significant than previously expected, referencing estimates based on proposals from the second-place bidder. The new contract terms are estimated to reduce FY2026 profit forecasts for AOT by 13%, prompting a target price revision from THB 40 to THB 38.50. Still, this modest adjustment is anticipated to have a positive short-term impact on AOT’s share price.
Globlex Securities added that the development is seen as more beneficial compared to terminating the contract and holding a new tender—an alternative that could see AOT lose concession income for at least 14 months and potentially receive lower rates from any new bidders due to current economic conditions.
The revised contracts maintain key features: annual growth on the MG to track regional GDP, a fixed revenue-sharing component of 20%, and an upside sharing mechanism depending on conditions.
Specifically, at Suvarnabhumi, the new MG is THB 232.9 per departing passenger with 5% annual growth, plus a 35% share of excess spending above that threshold. The contract will be extended two years to accommodate ongoing terminal construction and renovations.
Don Mueang’s terms remain largely unchanged, with a possible two-year extension to cover the transition to a new terminal, and regional airports stay at MG of THB 129.67 per head with 5% annual growth from 2030, along with a revised 35% revenue share from excess spend.
Maybank Securities (Thailand) has reiterated a positive outlook on the AOT contract adjustments, maintaining a ‘Buy’ rating with a target price of THB 49.00 per share.
The new MG for Suvarnabhumi is lower than previously forecast but incorporates annual growth and a new revenue-sharing component, which Maybank estimates could add THB 4.0 per share upside to its target price.
Meanwhile, the brokerage firm noted that some details, including the application of the 35% excess-spending clause, still require clarification.
