Bualuang Securities (BLS) has released the findings of its Primary Research EP.4, revealing a noticeable recovery in consumer purchasing power and sentiment towards the end of 2025 following the implementation of new government economic stimulus measures.
The survey, conducted between 14 and 26 November 2025 and encompassing 625 respondents, showed a marked decrease in consumer anxiety regarding the nation’s economic outlook.
The proportion of respondents who believe the Thai economy will “worsen” dropped significantly to 36%, down sharply from 55% recorded in the previous EP.2 survey conducted in August. This shift in sentiment translates into solid spending intentions: 46% of Thai consumers now plan to “increase spending”. Conversely, only 7% intend to significantly reduce their expenditure, a massive reduction from the 53% who planned spending cuts in EP.2. Despite this renewed willingness to spend, the majority of respondents (61%) have set their year-end spending budget at no more than 30,000 Baht.
Government Measures Boost Purchasing Power
Government measures have clearly provided a strong boost to purchasing power, with the “Khon La Khrueng Plus” programme proving the most effective, used or planned for use by 89% of respondents. Usage of the “Tiew Dee Mee Khuen” initiative was concentrated primarily in the restaurant category (58%) and accommodation (32%). BLS notes that the effectiveness stems from the design of the stimulus, which provides “cost reduction at the point of use”, aligning well with consumer preferences seen in EP.2, where measures related to “shop and receive tax reduction/refund” were ranked highest at 58%.
Focus on Essentials, F&B, and Travel
Increased spending is heavily concentrated in essential goods and experiential categories. Food and beverages (F&B) topped the planned spending list at 71%, followed closely by travel at 61%, and household essentials at 30%. The recovery in sentiment is also notably visible in the fashion and clothing sector, which saw a clear recovery to 26% of respondents planning increased spending, moving it away from the category previously expected to face the largest reductions in EP.2.
The “Two-Speed” Travel Market
The travel recovery, however, is characterised as a “Two-Speed” phenomenon. Among consumers planning to spend 50,000 Baht or more, 63–71% are planning international trips. In stark contrast, 49% of those planning to spend less than 10,000 Baht are choosing not to travel at all. This segmentation indicates that the year-end tourism market is being driven primarily by middle-to-high income groups, with the middle segment favouring domestic travel and the high-income segment opting for overseas destinations.
Debt Caution Remains High
Despite increased consumption, consumers are maintaining a highly cautious approach to debt and plan to avoid taking on new loans during the year-end period. This cautious approach is reflected in payment preferences: 90% prefer to use cash or QR payments, 64% pay off their credit card debt in full, and only 18% utilize instalment payment plans. Personal loans usage remains minimal, recorded at just 1%.
BLS Investment Outlook
Bualuang Securities economists confirm that the survey results align with their forecast for domestic consumption to grow by 2.5% year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2025, projecting that government stimulus measures will contribute an estimated 0.1–0.2% to GDP growth.
The consumption recovery is highlighted as Investment Theme #1, favouring restaurants, F&B, essential goods, and the fashion/clothing sectors. These groups notably saw their same-store sales stabilize in November, reversing the negative performance observed in the preceding period. Investment Theme #2 focuses on tourism, where spending by the middle-to-upper segments benefits both domestic and international airport passenger volumes, alongside premium domestic hotels. BLS holds preferences for AOT and CENTEL in this sector.
However, the survey points to limited recovery in specific sectors (Theme #3), including convenience stores (where demand has shifted to retailers participating in government schemes), high-ticket discretionary purchases such as home improvement and decorating goods, and credit card companies. The growth of credit card loans is expected to be impacted by consumers’ sustained caution against incurring new debt.
