Tisco Securities noted that on Tuesday, the share price of Moshi Moshi Retail Corporation Public Company Limited (SET: MOSHI) dropped over 5% yesterday. This latest price decline is not tied to company-specific factors. Operations remain on schedule, no major shareholder has offloaded shares, and same-store sales growth (SSSG) for December (1–15 December) reached 2.7% despite interruptions caused by floods and elevated comparatives from the previous year.
According to Tisco, MOSHI is still anticipated to deliver profit growth both year-on-year and sequentially in the fourth quarter of 2025, positioning the company for a record annual profit and laying the groundwork for continued expansion into 2026. The brokerage maintains its “Buy” recommendation.
Tisco expects MOSHI’s fourth quarter earnings to improve year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, supported by resilient seasonal demand, strong gross margins, and ongoing store network growth. The company is targeting 15 new store openings in the final quarter, with 10 outlets already launched, bringing the fiscal 2025 tally to 39—a figure just missing its original target of 40 due to delays in securing new locations.
December’s SSSG registered at 2.7%, while November rebounded to 2%, up from October’s 9% decline. Although overall sales since the start of the year are down roughly 2–3%, Year-to-date SSSG stands around 7%, above the 4–5% objective. Previous softness in sales reflected unusually elevated bases in October and November 2024 (30% and 23% respectively), the absence of the Halloween festival, and heavy rainfall. Flooding late in November led to five temporary branch closures, though comprehensive insurance coverage is expected to mitigate any direct financial loss.
December’s SSSG could accelerate further off last year’s low 4% base. Tisco anticipates fourth quarter SSSG to be steady or marginally negative versus last year’s 15.4%, but gross margin should remain strong thanks to a favourable product mix during the festive season.
For 2026, MOSHI is targeting revenue gains of 15–20% alongside further margin expansion. Key strategies include rapidly increasing branch count—with 35 new stores scheduled, primarily in early 2025—and boosting marketing spend, as well as undertaking store renovations that typically boost post-slowdown sales.
Capital expenditure is expected to rise from THB 280 million in 2025 to THB 400 million for upgrades and warehouse expansion, funding that is manageable given the group’s robust cash flows and low debt. Tisco highlights the high growth potential of Thailand’s lifestyle sector and believes MOSHI’s unique product offering and pricing power underscore its competitive edge.
Tisco reaffirms its fair value estimate for MOSHI at THB 60.00 per share, using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model with a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 7.4% (risk-free rate: 3.2%, risk premium: 6.4%, beta: 1.0, cost of debt: 4.0%, long-term growth: 1.0%). Downside risks to the outlook include a weakening economy, fewer inbound tourists, depreciation of the baht versus the yuan, and any lag in insurance payouts for disrupted branches. Notwithstanding near-term headwinds, Tisco maintains that MOSHI’s operational base remains resilient, underpinned by strong execution and clear structural growth drivers. The “Buy” call is reiterated.
