Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS) foresees a positive outlook for True Corporation Public Company Limited (SET: TRUE), projecting a strong recovery for the company in 4Q25.
The brokerage firm forecasts a pre-exceptional profit of THB 5.5 billion for the quarter, up 63% year-on-year and 22% quarter-on-quarter, with the figure for the full-year 2025 expected to double compared to 2024, in line with its estimates.
Service revenue, excluding interconnection (IC), is anticipated to rise by 1.4% year-on-year in 4Q25 and remain stable over the full year, mirroring company guidance. Mobile service revenue is expected to resume growth at 1.1% year-on-year after two quarters of decline, buoyed by an increase in inbound tourists and a return to positive subscriber growth.
The analyst noted that the negative impacts from the 2Q25 network outage and dealer commission optimization initiatives are starting to subside. Fixed broadband revenue is forecast to climb 7% year-on-year, while pay-TV revenue may see a sequential dip after a seasonal surge in 3Q25 driven by concert and event income.
A major driver in 4Q25 will be the first full quarter of spectrum cost-savings, with estimated total quarterly savings of about THB 1.35 billion, which is THB 450 million higher than in 3Q25.
This should help reduce the cost of service by 20% year-on-year, particularly with a 22% reduction in network costs following the expiry of major spectrum contracts (850/2300MHz). Network modernization, completed in October, is expected to minimize future impairment risks. SG&A expenses are projected to remain flat quarter-on-quarter.
Importantly, 4Q25 is set to mark TRUE’s first profitable quarter from handset sales since its corporate amalgamation, with a positive gross margin fueled by robust sales of iPhone 17.
KKPS expects TRUE to achieve net profits of THB 18.51 billion in 2025, THB 20.39 billion in 2026, and THB 20.77 billion in 2027. The firm reiterates a ‘Buy’ rating and sets a target price of THB 12.50 per share, citing ongoing revenue momentum and anticipated full-year recognition of cost savings in 2026.
