On Monday at 10:27 AM (Bangkok time), the share price of Tipco Asphalt Public Company Limited (SET: TASCO) gained 8.76% or THB 1.20 to THB 14.90, with a trading value of THB 268.31 million.
Analysts expect Thailand’s TASCO to benefit significantly from U.S. intervention in Venezuela, which could boost heavy crude supply and support the company’s sales growth.
Kasikorn Securities (KS) revealed that Venezuela currently produces 800,000 barrels of oil per day. It is initially estimated that if the United States takes control of production, output could gradually increase by another 150,000-1,200,000 barrels per day. Donald Trump has announced that he will allow major U.S. oil companies to quickly manage the process. In the past, Exxon and ConocoPhillips managed the operations, while currently, only Chevron has exclusive rights.
In the short term, there might be a minor price adjustment due to war sentiment. However, what needs further monitoring is how the U.S. will manage Venezuela’s oil reserves—reported to be the highest in the world at 300 billion barrels. Historical examples such as Iraq and Afghanistan show that it is not easy; more than $1 billion was spent, yet the return on investment remains incalculable in this case.
According to a Bloomberg model, every 1% increase in global oil production capacity affects crude oil prices by 2.5%. If the assumption of a 1.5% increase in production holds, this could impact mid-term crude prices by 4%. Thus, there is a slightly negative outlook for the energy sector, as crude oil supply is expected to rise mid-to-long term.
Currently, the 2025 Dubai crude oil price is assumed to be $65 per barrel with an oversupply status (about 1.2 million barrels). If the surplus increases to 2.6–3 million barrels, oil prices could drop to around $58–60 per barrel. Every $5 movement in crude oil price has a downside (downside) impact of about 1 point on the SET index. Based on historical statistics of wars (2003–2025), the SET Index typically declines by about 1.4% (over one month).
A positive outlook is expected for TASCO as production of heavy crude oil could increase if the U.S. successfully controls Venezuela and lifts sanctions. The company could resume importing crude oil from Venezuela, which is expected to boost its sales because it can capture more market share in alternative crude asphalt.
Before the 2020 intervention in Venezuela, TASCO’s sales stood at 2 million tons per year, compared to the current level of 1.2 million tons per year. Venezuelan oil is 10–30% cheaper than alternatives, resulting in a normal profit of 2,000–3,000 million baht per year, compared to the current 1,500 million baht per year.
