Globlex Securities has issued a positive outlook on PTT Oil and Retail Business Public Company Limited (SET: OR), highlighting near-term upside driven by margin recovery and seasonality.
The brokerage firm expects stronger earnings for OR in the fourth quarter of 2025, with profit growth both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, thanks to three key factors:
- The oil segment is poised to benefit from a higher marketing margin (MM), estimated at THB 0.85–1.00 per litre, supported by increased sales volumes due to seasonal demand.
- The lifestyle segment, led by Café Amazon, shows clear signals of margin recovery, with its EBITDA margin improving to 28–29% in 4Q25, up from 25–26% in 4Q24, attributed to effective cost control and operating leverage.
- Potential headwinds from fuel exports to Cambodia are expected to have a limited and manageable impact on overall profitability.
Globlex notes that OR’s MM should remain in a sustainable range, aided by the Oil Fuel Fund’s improved balance and the company’s higher DODO (Dealer-Owned Dealer-Operated) outlet mix, which reduces margin volatility. The fourth quarter is typically a high season for sales, propelled by tourism, and recent oil price declines have also supported stronger jet fuel margins.
On the non-oil front, Café Amazon continues to be a core earnings driver for OR, with margin recovery despite Found & Found still in a nascent loss-making phase. Expansion in store count and premium offerings are expected to support medium-term efficiency improvements.
OR’s portfolio has become more focused following the divestment of underperforming M&A investments, like Texas Chicken, allowing for a more disciplined and selective capital allocation strategy. The company is now targeting Found & Found to expand from 13 sales points by the end of 2025 to 50 by the end of 2026, adding growth potential without a significant impact on near-term earnings.
As a result, Globlex maintains a ‘Buy’ recommendation on OR with a target price of THB 19.4 per share, based on resilient non-oil margins led by Café Amazon and lower earnings volatility, supported by stable marketing margins and seasonal volume growth.
