Wilasinee Boonmasungsong, Assistant Managing Director at Globlex Securities (GBS), assessed that the Thai stock market in January 2026 will likely move sideways, with investors closely monitoring the ongoing tensions between the United States and Venezuela, which could impact global oil markets and overall investment sentiment.
Domestically, political factors remain in focus, particularly the election campaign. The Bank of Thailand’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has projected that the Thai economy for 2026–2027 will see slower growth compared to the first half of 2025, reflecting declining private consumption in line with lower income and exports affected by U.S. tariff measures. Meanwhile, the tourism sector is expected to continue its gradual recovery, which may influence overall investor sentiment and investment activity.
Thus, the SET Index is projected to move within a range of 1,230–1,280 points this month.
Investment is also supported by the energy sector, especially as OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) have agreed to pause oil production increases for February and March 2026 due to seasonal factors following their online meeting on January 4. The Thai Ministry of Energy expects oil prices in 2026 to decrease compared to 2025, though prices remain volatile due to the economic slowdown and reduced oil demand. However, the Russia–Ukraine war and U.S.–Venezuela tensions may exert upward pressure on prices.
Meanwhile, Kiatnakin Phatra Bank (KKP) views the Thai real estate market in 2026 as showing signs of recovery, supported by the new government’s economic policies and large-scale infrastructure investments.
Additionally, domestic factors to watch include: the January 21 deadline for banks to submit 2025 financial statements, the advance voting scheduled for February 1, and the general election on February 8. Overseas factors of interest include: the U.S. final service sector PMI for December (January 6), Japan’s final service sector PMI for December (January 7), EU inflation for December, the U.S. services index for December, November Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data, October factory orders, and weekly oil inventory figures.
Watcharain Jongyanyong, Head of Research at GBS, recommends a speculative investment strategy focusing on media and retail stocks such as Plan B Media PCL (SET: PLANB), VGI PCL (SET: VGI), BEC World PCL (SET: BEC), T.K.S. Technologies PCL (SET: TKS), and CP All PCL (SET: CPALL). These companies are expected to benefit from increased election spending and consumer activity during this period, resulting in upward share price movement from investor speculation.
