PTT Exploration and Production (SET: PTTEP) is set to report robust fourth-quarter 2025 earnings, underpinned by record sales volumes and downside protection from its oil hedging contracts, according to latest research by CLSA and Maybank Securities.
CLSA anticipates PTTEP will deliver a net profit of THB 17.0 billion for 4Q25, a 34% rise quarter-on-quarter but a 7% dip year-on-year, benefitting from record sales volume, lower costs, and extra gains from hedging, FX, and the bargain purchase of Algeria Touat. Record sales are estimated at 544kboepd, driven by increased crude loading from the Middle East and South Africa, the full-quarter impact of Block A18 and Touat, and operational Gulf of Thailand projects. The average liquids price is forecast at US$62.0/bbl, a US$2 discount to Dubai, and overall ASP at US$42.5/boe. Unit costs will drop to US$30.0/boe, supported by lower DD&A and administrative expenses.
CLSA highlights PTTEP’s oil hedging strategy, with 12 million barrels hedged for 2026 at an average of US$67/bbl, representing 21% of projected 2026 liquid sales. This move is expected to protect earnings in a volatile market. CLSA maintains an “Outperform” rating with a target price of THB 146, pegged at 9.0x FY26 PE.
Maybank Securities projects a 4Q25 core profit of THB 13.6 billion (-25% YoY, +11% QoQ), citing oil price pressure from the OPEC+ production hike in April 2025, which led to a supply glut. Nonetheless, sales volume is expected to rise to 540kboepd (+8% YoY, +6% QoQ). Extraordinary items for the quarter include THB 2.7 billion from negative goodwill, THB 1 billion oil hedging gain, and THB 300 million FX gain, pushing net profit to an estimated THB 16.7 billion (-9% YoY, +32% QoQ).
Looking ahead, both firms anticipate strong 1Q26 sales volumes around 550kboepd, buoyed by new projects such as Touat, A18, and SK408. Maybank maintains a “BUY” recommendation with a THB 133 target, highlighting valuation and a 6% dividend yield.
PTTEP’s 4Q25 results are scheduled for release on February 9, 2026.
