Crude oil prices retreated on Monday after Iran declared it had restored “total control” following violent unrest over the weekend, dampening concerns about potential supply shocks from the OPEC member. Traders are also monitoring signs of a restart in Venezuelan oil exports after recent political upheaval.
By 04:55 P.M. (GMT+7), Brent crude futures had eased 0.30%, or $0.19, to $63.15 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate slipped 0.36%, or $0.21, to $58.91.
Both benchmarks had surged more than 3% last week, marking their steepest advance since October. The gains followed intensified action by Iranian authorities in response to the largest demonstrations since 2022, an episode that saw further escalation through the weekend.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi asserted that the situation in Iran was now “under total control” following the recent surge in unrest. In remarks published via English translation, Araqchi attributed the weekend’s violence to “terrorists” encouraged by U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats of intervention should the protests turn violent. According to a rights group, over 500 fatalities have been reported since the onset of the civil unrest.
Despite the elevated risk premium reflected in oil prices in recent days, an expert from MST Marquee noted that market participants are still discounting the broader threat posed by a potential escalation in Iran, which could jeopardize shipments through the strategic Strait of Hormuz.
Meanwhile, Venezuela appears set to resume crude exports in the aftermath of President Nicolas Maduro’s removal from office. President Trump stated last week that Caracas could release as much as 50 million barrels of previously sanctioned oil for U.S. import.
Individuals familiar with the situation indicated that this has triggered a push among oil companies to secure tankers and ready logistical networks at aging Venezuelan ports. Trafigura, a global commodity trader, informed the White House on Friday that its first vessel could begin loading within a week.
A senior market analyst at Phillip Nova stated that oil prices may remain within a narrow range absent a clear rebound in demand or a significant interruption to supply. Furthermore, futures markets are increasingly factoring in prospects of a supply glut as the sector moves through 2026.
Investors are additionally vigilant for possible disruptions to Russian energy exports, as Ukraine continues strikes on critical infrastructure and the U.S. considers tightening sanctions targeting Moscow’s oil industry.
