Analysts from Yuanta Securities (Thailand) are endorsing an ‘Accumulate’ strategy for shares of Krung Thai Bank Public Company Limited (KTB), anticipating that the lender will post modest profit growth of 1.2% in the fourth quarter of 2025, compared with the same period last year.
This is seen as outperforming the sector average, where group earnings are forecast to decrease by 4.8% year-on-year. Yuanta also predicts KTB’s dividend of THB 1.28 per share for the second half of 2025, translating into a 4.5% dividend yield.
Similarly, Phillip Securities (Thailand) projects KTB’s fourth-quarter 2025 profit to reach THB 11.9 billion, up 13.1% year-on-year, a rise that analysts attribute to increased non-interest income, particularly from financial instruments and investment gains.
However, due to an expected significant quarter-on-quarter drop in earnings from financial instruments, profits are projected to fall 18.9% quarter-on-quarter. Phillip maintains its ‘Accumulate’ recommendation and a target price of THB 30 per share for KTB. The company is expected to benefit most from government projects following the formation of a new administration.
Meanwhile, Krungthai XSpring Securities (KTX) forecasts combined net profits for six major Thai banks—including Bangkok Bank (BBL), Kasikornbank (KBANK), SCB X (SCB), TMBThanachart Bank (TTB), TISCO Financial Group (TISCO), and Kiatnakin Phatra Bank (KKP)—to reach THB 42 billion in 4Q25.
This represents a 2.7% increase year-on-year but an 11.5% decline from the prior quarter, attributed to subdued net interest income due to weaker loan portfolios and a narrower net interest margin (NIM).
Non-interest revenues are expected to show year-on-year growth, mainly supported by wealth management operations, but will slow quarter-on-quarter following robust investment gains booked in the previous period, while higher seasonal operating costs also create headwinds.
Lower provisions, resulting from proactive non-performing loan (NPL) management earlier in the year, are seen as partially offsetting profit pressures, according to KTX. The brokerage still rates the banking sector ‘Overweight,’ citing system-wide surplus liquidity.
The current downward interest rate environment is seen as favorable for banks’ proactive capital management and ability to pay high dividends, enhancing the potential for a medium-term price-to-book value (PBV) re-rating. For 4Q25 earnings plays, TMBThanachart Bank (TTB) is KTX’s top pick with a ‘Neutral’ rating and a THB 2.15 target price.
