TISCO Securities projects that CH. Karnchang Public Company Limited (SET: CK) will maintain resilient performance in 2026, supported by a robust backlog and a clear pipeline of future projects, providing stability even as political disruption adds risk to new infrastructure tenders.
CK is forecast to report a robust fourth quarter, with year-on-year improvement in earnings, though results are expected to decrease quarter-on-quarter. The sequential decline is attributed mainly to an absence of dividend income from TTW and lower equity income from BEM and CKP due to typical seasonal factors.
While the dissolution of parliament raises uncertainty around the timeline for public infrastructure auctioning, CK’s substantial backlog of projects continues to underpin steady revenue, limiting exposure to political risks.
The company’s order book remains strong at THB 170 billion, despite not signing any new contracts in 2025. This backlog serves as a solid revenue base, looking forward to the medium term.
Political headwinds are likely to delay some tenders while the new cabinet takes shape. However, several key projects have already been approved, while TISCO expects CK to secure the THB 35 billion Double Deck project from BEM in the second half of 2026.
For the fourth quarter of 2025, the analyst anticipates net profit at THB 179 million, reversing a THB 171 million net loss from the previous year, but representing a sharp 90% drop from the previous quarter (or 81% excluding an extraordinary gain of THB 814 million from LPCL selling to TTW).
Year-on-year growth is supported by a 14% rise in revenue, a margin expansion from 7.2% to 7.9%—largely due to increased contributions from MRT projects—and a 6% uptick in equity income. The quarter-on-quarter decline reflects both the lack of TTW dividends and a 57% drop in equity income, especially from CKP, due to seasonal factors.
Following these, TISCO maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on CK and upgrades its SOTP-based fair value estimate to THB 19.10 per share, from THB 18.00 previously.
Forecasts for 2025-2027 net profits have been raised by 76%, 10%, and 5% respectively, to capture strong 9M25 performance and improved assumptions for construction revenue, margins, expenses, and equity income.
The dip in anticipated 2026 profit is due to the THB 814 million extraordinary gain in 3Q25; excluding this, normalized profits are expected to be stable year-on-year, as no new projects are added in 2025. Main risks include possible construction delays and higher-than-expected costs.
