On Thursday at 11:21 AM (Bangkok time), the share price of Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited (SET: BCP) rose by 3.33% or THB 1.00 to THB 31.00, with a trading value of THB 269.41 million.
Land and Houses Securities forecasts that BCP will post a 4Q25 net profit of THB 2.1 billion, rising from THB 1.1 billion in the previous quarter and THB 17 million in 4Q24.
Total one-off items are expected to account for a loss of THB 3.9 billion, predominantly from stock losses & hedging of THB 3.6 billion, which represents a significant quarter-on-quarter decrease from a loss of THB 6.9 billion while showing an increase from a loss of THB 3.1 billion during the same period last year.
Normalized profit is expected at THB 5.3 billion (+65% quarter-on-quarter, +193% year-on-year), driven mainly by the refining business. Refining business profits surged from higher refining capacity at 280,000 barrels/day (+6% quarter-on-quarter, +3% year-on-year), achieving a record-high utilization rate of 95%.
Gross refining margin (GRM) is projected at USD 10.4/barrel (+41% quarter-on-quarter, +117% year-on-year), due to rising spreads in all product types—especially gasoline and jet, +52% quarter-on-quarter. However, falling crude oil prices led to stock losses, resulting in a total GRM of USD 6.1/barrel.
Retail oil business weakened quarter-on-quarter as marketing margin was THB 0.80/liter (-6% quarter-on-quarter, +4% year-on-year), pressured by stock losses and seasonal OPEX increases, even as sales volume rose (+7% quarter-on-quarter, +1% year-on-year).
For BCPG, the earnings of the subsidiary were steady quarter-on-quarter, as lower contributions from U.S. gas-fired and Lao hydro power plants (due to seasonality) were offset by a full-quarter contribution from Monsoon and a peak season capacity factor of 55%.
OKEA’s profit dropped in line with sales volume (-44% quarter-on-quarter, -30% year-on-year), as year-end sales management affected results, but sales and average selling price are expected to rebound in 1Q26.
BCP’s full-year 2025 normalized profit is estimated at THB 11.5 billion, substantially above previous forecasts, thanks to strong refining margins late in the year.
1Q26 normalized profit outlook is optimistic, with expected growth both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year. Even if refining margins retreat quarter-on-quarter, this should be offset by improvements at OKEA (volume and price increase) and seasonal U.S. gas-fired power generation at BCPG. Significant year-on-year growth is anticipated from a low base, U.S. gas power revenue recognition, and Monsoon profits.
Following these, the brokerage firm maintains a “Buy” recommendation on BCP. The company is anticipated to post strong profits from rising refining margins, with 1Q26 normalized profit supported by OKEA and BCPG. Current share price remains well below book value, benefiting from foreign buying year-to-date.
Meanwhile, key risks include potential global economic slowdown, which may pressure crude oil prices, refining margins, and sales volume below estimates, alongside foreign exchange risk.
