Globlex Securities projects that Thai Airways International Public Company Limited (SET: THAI) will post a net profit of THB2.9 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025—down 35% quarter-on-quarter, but an improvement from the net loss of THB 42.1 billion reported in 4Q24. This turnaround is primarily due to the absence of asset impairment charges which had weighed on last year’s results.
Operationally, the company’s core net profit is expected to slide 22% QoQ to THB 4.3 billion. This decline is attributed to higher expenses related to employees, aircraft maintenance, and depreciation. In addition, THAI faces softer passenger yields and lower load factors caused by intensifying competition in the airline industry.
Globlex estimates that the operating profit margin will shrink to 15% in 4Q25, down from 19.3% in the prior quarter, while the net profit margin is forecasted to contract to 6.3% from 9.9%. This margin compression is driven by several factors:
1. Passenger yield is falling from THB 2.61 per revenue passenger kilometer (RPK) in 3Q25 to THB2.50/RPK in 4Q25, amid higher industry competition.
2. Employee benefits and crew expenses are projected to jump from 10.7% to 13% of revenue due to a one-time lump sum bonus.
3. Aircraft repair and maintenance expenses will surge from THB2.5 billion (3Q25) to THB5.4 billion (4Q25) as the company aligns its accounting with auditor requirements, correcting prior under-booking.
4. Lease expenses are set to rise after the addition of two new Airbus A321NEO aircraft.
During the fourth quarter of 2025, THAI expanded its fleet by acquiring two new Airbus A321NEO aircraft, bringing its active fleet to 80 units. Looking ahead to 2026, the airline aims to add 20 more aircraft—most of which will be delivered in the second half of the year. Globlex foresees that this fleet expansion will increase depreciation expenses in 2H26, potentially leading to a softer net profit for that period compared to the first half of the year.
In terms of shareholding dynamics, on February 4, 2026, 6.6 billion shares (equivalent to 23% of outstanding shares) exited their “silent period.” These shares, acquired at an average cost of THB3-4 each, could increase THAI’s free float from 7% up to 20%. However, Globlex highlighted that most of these shares are held by long-term shareholders such as the Ministry of Finance (holding 38.9%), state owned enterprises, and various cooperative organizations. Many major cooperatives—including the Cooperatives of Thammasat University, PEA, PTT, and Kasetsart University—have confirmed their intention to retain their holdings as long-term investments, reducing concerns over immediate selling pressure.
Globlex maintains its “BUY” recommendation for THAI, with a target price of THB 12 per share, based on a 2026 estimated price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.0x. Although increased free float and the unlocking of sellable shares (up to 3.7 billion shares or 13% of total shares outstanding) could create short-term overhang, the brokerage believes the company’s strong net profit outlook supports a share price recovery by the second quarter of 2026.
