Krungsri Securities (KSS) expresses an optimistic outlook on the results of Thailand’s 2026 general election, predicting that the Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) will secure a near-landslide victory with close to 200 seats. This projection is notably more positive than KSS’ previous base case, which anticipated BJT would win no more than around 160 seats.
According to KSS, such a decisive win would likely pave the way for the formation of a highly stable coalition government. The new government could be led by one or two major parties commanding a combined total of at least 250 seats, possibly reaching or even exceeding 300 seats.
Different coalition models are being considered, such as Bhumjaithai joining forces with Pheu Thai (PT) and Kla Tham (KT) parties, or with Pheu Thai and Democrat parties, as well as other variations involving smaller parties.
A stable government would contrast sharply with previous fragile, minority-led administrations, fostering confidence in the state’s ability to deliver consistent fiscal stimulus and longer-term policy measures. Importantly, should the current party leadership remain in place, this would be the first time in years that economic strategies could be continued seamlessly across administrations.
KSS also expects the government formation process to proceed within the normal timeline, reducing the risk of delays to the 2027 fiscal budget. Formation could even occur faster than expected, given the projected leadership continuity.
The analyst draws comparisons to historic post-election periods where dominant party victories led to strong investor inflows and a buoyant stock market. For instance, after the Thai Rak Thai party’s 248-seat win in 2001, the SET Index rose by 1.1% in the first month and 10% within three months.
Following the People’s Power Party’s 233-seat win in 2007, the SET Index climbed 5.5% in one week. A 2011 Pheu Thai victory with 265 seats corresponded with SET Index gains of 9.5% and 17% over the next three to six months, respectively.
KSS anticipates a 2026 election scenario similar to 2011, when international risk factors were minimal, unlike the 2007 subprime crisis or markedly different 2001 environment. Conditions may even be more favorable than in 2011, given reduced domestic conflict and Bhumjaithai’s likely commitment to a balanced blend of short-term stimulus and ongoing economic restructuring, rather than populist spending that could imperil fiscal stability over the medium to long term.
On fund flows, Krungsri points out that foreign investors have relatively low exposure to Thai equities, and past data from the previous five elections show a net buying trend of THB 3.1 billion on average during the first three of the five trading days post-election. With increased government stability and pragmatic economic policies expected, foreign inflows are likely to exceed this average in 2026.
Strategically, KSS has raised its three-month target range for the SET Index to 1,420–1,500 points. The firm recommends focusing on two main Election Play 2026 investment themes:
Investment & FDI-linked Stocks:
- Contractors and construction materials: STECON, SCC, PYLON, STPI, INSET
- Power plants: GULF, EGCO
- Banks: KTB, KBANK
- Communication infrastructure: ADVANC, INSET
- Industrial estates: AMATA, WHA
Domestic Consumption & Services:
- Domestic stimulus: CPALL, MTC, KTC, PLANB
- Services: BDMS, AOT, CENTEL
KSS’ top picks are STECON, GULF, CPALL, KTB, and AOT. Specific ‘Buy’ recommendations include GULF (target THB 59), CPALL (THB 80), and KTB (THB 30). AOT is rated as ‘Neutral’ with a target price of THB 50.5 per share.
