Finansia Syrus Securities (FSS) estimates that SCG JWD Logistics Public Company Limited (SET: SJWD) is likely to post steady 4Q25 profit at THB 255.7 million, a 0.8% decrease quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) from the previous quarter but a 38% increase year-on-year (YoY). The profit increase was mainly supported by a THB-20-million gain from the sale of warehouse assets under Alpha joint venture to an investment trust.
Normalized profit is forecast at THB 235.7 million, up 9.4% QoQ and up 21.8% YoY, driven by the recovery in the share of profit from joint ventures at THB 114 million, as there were no negative special items like in 3Q25. Revenue and gross margin are expected to remain stable, while seasonal increases in SG&A expenses are offset by improving profit from joint ventures.
Though facing challenges in 2025 from a slow domestic economic recovery, trade taxes, and the Thai-Cambodia border issue, FSS projects SJWD’s full-year normalized profit to rise to THB 1.1 billion, a 39.1% growth YoY, due to reduced SG&A expenses and stronger joint venture profit.
Total revenue is projected to grow 2.5% due to warehouse, cold storage business, and overseas logistics, offsetting weakness in the automotive segment. Gross margin is forecast at 13.8%, slightly higher than last year, with net profit expected at THB 1.2 billion, a 5.9% increase.
From 2023–2025, after the merger with SCG Logistics, SJWD’s revenue stabilized in the THB 24–25 billion range, averaging 3% annual growth, but improved margins have resulted in normalized profit growing by an average of about 9% per year through expense control and joint venture profit share.
For 2026, normalized profit is forecast at THB 1.21 billion, a 10.7% increase YoY, driven by higher revenue and gross margin. The company plans to focus on expanding international logistics, as well as increasing warehouse and cold storage capacity, both domestically and internationally, and enhancing cost control efficiency.
FSS notes that SJWD’s stock price has declined by more than 60% over the past three years and currently trades more than two standard deviations below the long-term average. In 2026, the estimated P/E ratio is 11x and P/BV only 0.6x. It is projected that performance bottomed out in 3Q25, and a gradual recovery is likely, so the “BUY” recommendation is maintained.
