The Thai telecommunications industry is entering a period of New Equilibrium after years of heavy investment in infrastructure—such as 5G, digital networks, and mergers & acquisitions. Only a few key players remain, but competition has become more qualitative. The market has shifted from focusing on “network expansion” to emphasizing “revenue quality and financial efficiency.”
Analysts agree that the current structure of Thailand’s telecom market is conducive to generating more sustainable returns. Price competition has lessened, and network investments are beginning to yield returns. Operators are refocusing on ARPU (Average Revenue Per User), quality customers, and digital services. True Corporation PCL (SET: TRUE) and Advanced Info Service PCL (SET: ADVANC) are now positioned similarly in terms of network size, customer base, and technological capabilities.
Securities analysts have given a positive outlook on TRUE after the company announced its 4Q25 earnings, reporting normalized net profit of THB 6.1 billion. Full-year 2026 profit is projected to surpass THB 25 billion. TRUE has achieved profits for four consecutive quarters—a key point as “continued profitability” reflects stable operating performance, not just special factors affecting a single quarter.
Another highlight is 4Q EBITDA, reaching THB 27.8 billion —up 10.3% year-on-year and 3.2% from the previous quarter. The EBITDA Margin climbed to 67.5%, indicating significantly improved cost efficiency and network management. While service revenue remains stable, margin expansion demonstrates the company’s strong business efficiency as profit growth outpaces revenue.
For the full year 2025, TRUE reported total EBITDA of THB 105 billion, up 7% from the previous year; core profit for the year was THB 19.2 billion. In terms of shareholder returns, the board approved a total annual dividend payout of THB 10.7 billion, or THB 0.31 per share—equivalent to 56% of annual core profit—demonstrating confidence in future cash flow.
Meanwhile, the net debt to EBITDA ratio dropped to 4.0 times at the end of the fourth quarter, indicating improved financial health and greater flexibility in capital management. Analysts estimate that confidence in TRUE is underpinned by several factors: sustained profits over four quarters, double-digit EBITDA growth, clearly expanding margins, high dividend payouts, and a progressively stronger balance sheet.
If TRUE can maintain its current EBITDA margin into 2026, net profit is likely to continue expanding. Overall, the outlook shows that TRUE is achieving greater operating stability and can instill clear investor confidence.
