Kasikorn Securities (KS) expresses a slightly positive view following Gulf Development Public Company Limited (SET: GULF)’s 4Q25 analyst meeting, citing the company’s confidence in long-term opportunities driven by Thailand’s evolving power sector.
GULF’s management shared their perspective on the country’s long-term electrical grid development, highlighting that the upcoming Power Development Plan (PDP) could allow for the addition of 7,000–8,000 MW in new natural gas power plants. Demand from data centers is expected to be a key driver for this increase, while new rounds of renewable energy auctions are also anticipated.
Despite the growth opportunity, Kasikorn notes that the auction for new natural gas power plants is unlikely to take place before 2027 at the earliest. Construction would then take an additional seven years. Current obstacles are severe, with a global shortage of gas turbines and a surge in investment costs—estimated to have risen 30% per megawatt due to more expensive gas turbine prices.
Management views the potential contribution from small modular reactors (SMRs) as minimal, expecting only pilot projects with capacities of about 200–300 MW. GULF indicates little strategic interest in this area, seeing no significant impact whether or not such projects proceed.
GULF believes there is a possibility for further liberalization of the electricity market in Thailand. The most likely initial step would be the introduction of direct power purchase agreements (PPA), opening up long-term opportunities in wholesale and distribution businesses—areas of interest for GULF.
Currently, the company has no plans to increase its investment in Kasikornbank (KBANK), focusing instead on enjoying KBANK’s attractive 7% dividend yield. Regarding future data center expansions (from Phase 4 onward), GULF intends to invest independently rather than through joint ventures, as was the case with GSA Phases 1–3.
Kasikorn Securities forecasts profit growth for GULF in 2026, driven by:
- Commercial Operation (COD) commencement of new renewable power plants initiated at the end of 2025,
- Increased revenues from liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargo,
- Dividend income from KBANK,
- Gains from ADVANC, and
- Higher earnings from the Jackson plant in the U.S. from an approved electricity tariff increase.
Following these, the brokerage firm maintains its ‘Buy’ recommendation on GULF, with a target price of THB 65 per share.
