Citigroup has revised downward its 12-month price forecasts for Bitcoin and Ethereum, pointing to delays in U.S. cryptocurrency market legislation. The banking group said stalled regulatory action has narrowed prospects for ETFs and wider institutional activity, with direct implications for crypto market sentiment.
Citigroup trimmed its Bitcoin target for the next 12 months to $112,000, down from its previous estimate of $143,000. The projection for Ethereum was similarly reduced to $3,175 from $4,304. The firm underscored faltering progress in the U.S. Senate on market-structure reforms, with the Clarity Act’s passage increasingly unlikely due to unresolved disagreements over stablecoin oversight and limited legislative time in 2026.
According to Citi strategist Alex Saunders, regulatory changes remain a critical driver for asset growth, but legislative inertia has made meaningful reform less likely in the near term. Underpinned by recent lackluster growth in user activity for Ethereum, Citi noted the asset may be particularly responsive to such metrics, even as ongoing trends in stablecoins and tokenization could stimulate further engagement.
Should the macroeconomic environment deteriorate into recession, Citi sees Bitcoin potentially falling as low as $58,000, with Ether possibly reaching $1,198. Conversely, strong investor interest could lift Bitcoin to $165,000 and Ethereum to $4,488.
The feasibility of enacting market-structure legislation may decline further if Democrats make gains in the November congressional elections, due to internal party divisions on policy related to digital assets. Passage in the Senate would require backing from at least seven Democrats.
Some party members are seeking provisions to restrict politicians’ financial involvement in cryptocurrency ventures, particularly given increased attention on the Trump family’s World Liberty Financial initiative. Citi’s note also referenced calls from lawmakers for stricter anti-money laundering measures in any future bill.
In the near term, Citi expects Bitcoin to trade within a range, with $70,000 highlighted as a critical level near recent pre-election prices, amid uncertainty surrounding upcoming regulatory developments.
As of 4:08 PM (Bangkok time) on Tuesday, Bitcoin traded near $74,111.06, with Ethereum at $2,316.56.
