Mr. Chaiyot Jiwangkul, Assistant Director of Securities Analysis at Krungsri Securities (KSS), during the “Kaohoon” program on March 18, 2026, stated that the yesterday rally in the Thai market was largely due to investors speculate on a potential ceasefire in the Iran war.
He disclosed that foreign analysts have divided the conflict into four stages including: 1. The initial confrontation, 2. The full escalation, 3. The de-escalation, with initial peace talk through mediators, and 4. The ceasefire agreement. Currently, the conflict is in the third stage, as most foreign media view the conflict as already passing the peak escalation, with European nations and China presenting themself as a mediating party.
Mr. Chaiyot also added that the resignation of Joseph Kent, head of the U.S. Counterterrorism Center, and President Donald Trump’s condemnation against NATO allies on the lack of support in the Iran conflict has no effect on the U.S. leadership decision, as well as the market movement.
As such, he sees the recent rise in the Thai market as investors betting on the prospect of a ceasefire in the near-term.
On fund flow, Mr. Chaiyot expects foreign fund inflows to continue as the U.S. dollar has weakened due to easing concerns over the Middle East conflict.
Mr. Chaiyot recommends the following stocks:
GULF: The analyst expects the rising energy cost to slightly affect the company (around 6%), with the new S-Curve (virtual bank, data center) remaining a positive factor. The “Buy” recommendation was given to investors who were interested in long-term investment or when the price went down. The fair value was given at THB 70 per share.
TRUE: The analyst expects the company to grow further due to reduced competition, which increased average revenue per user (ARPU). Furthermore, TRUE’s dividend payout ratio is currently at around 70-75% (compared to ADVANC’s 90%). If TRUE increases the payout ratio, the dividend payment will also sharply rise as well. The analyst touts TRUE as top pick in the telecommunication sector, as the company has little exposure to the ongoing crisis. The “Buy” recommendation was given with a fair value of THB 19.
Regarding oil prices, if the oil prices remain high (above $100 per barrel) for two months after the breakout of the Iran conflict, the transportation sector will be the first casualty, followed by consumer products and construction. Should the conflict last beyond two months, the GDP will likely be affected. As such the Iran war situation should remain the key focal point, including the potential ceasefire within these two months period, Mr. Chaiyot concluded.
