Krungsri Securities (KSS) stated in its analysis that Electricity Generating Public Company Limited (SET: EGCO) is expected to report a normalized profit for 1Q26 on May 15, 2026, at THB 1,479 million, down 8% compared to the same period last year but a significant increase of 1,526% from the previous quarter.
The year-on-year drop in normalized profit is mainly due to the QPL power plant resuming operation under a new power purchase agreement with lower tariff rates, as well as reduced operation at the Paju power plant in South Korea following the start of commercial operations (COD) of nuclear and coal-fired power plants there.
However, the normalized profit in 1Q26 is expected to recover significantly compared to the previous quarter, supported by improved profit-sharing, especially from Independent Power Producer (IPP) plants boosted by extremely hot weather. In addition, U.S. power plants—Compass and Linden—showed improved core performance due to higher CP and EP rates and reduced maintenance shutdowns.
If 1Q26 normalized profit matches expectations, it will account for about 22% of the full-year 2026 forecast. Meanwhile, KSS preliminarily assesses that EGCO may record approximately THB 100 million in foreign exchange gains as the company holds more U.S. dollar-denominated assets than liabilities, leading to fair value profits in line with the weakening baht.
For 2Q26, KSS expects that EGCO’s normalized profit will decrease both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter to the range of THB 1,000–1,200 million, mainly due to softer QPL profit and seasonal impacts at Compass, Linden, Paju, and Yunlin plants, although some losses will be offset by profit-sharing from IPP plants, which hit their annual peak during this period.
Nevertheless, KSS expects EGCO’s operating performance to rebound significantly in the second half of 2026 from a low profit base last year. Thus, the original profit forecast is maintained, along with a “Buy” recommendation and a 2026 target price of THB 133 per share, based on the SOTP (Sum of the Parts) valuation method.
KSS sees EGCO as the second-strongest power operator in the sector, well-positioned for growth via additional electricity generation capacity under the new power development plan. Currently, the stock remains attractively valued at a 2026 PER of about 9 times and offers a high dividend yield of around 6%.
