Thailand’s government is poised to launch significant economic stimulus measures, according to Tisco Securities. Key developments include the planned revival of the “Khon La Khrueng Plus” co-payment program and a proposed Emergency Decree for Bt400 billion in loans.
The co-payment scheme, which could be approved as early as today, will subsidize 60% of consumer spending up to Bt1,000 per month for four months, totaling Bt4,000 per participant. If participation matches the previous round at 20 million people, the program’s budget could reach Bt80 billion. Tisco highlights the short-term positives for the SET Index, with the Ministry of Finance estimating the prior round, supported by Bt42 billion, boosted GDP by 0.2 percentage points. The current, larger stimulus could lift GDP by 0.4 points, helping counteract rising energy prices. Beneficiaries may include suppliers like CPAXT and retailers such as CPALL, as increased disposable income is expected to strengthen financial asset quality.
Attention is also focused on the additional Bt400 billion in government loan facilities, with plans for further measures potentially including more cash handouts, support for SMEs, and incentives for clean energy and EV adoption. These initiatives could further stimulate domestic spending and favored sectors.
However, Tisco warns of longer-term risks. The new borrowing could raise public debt by 2.1 points from its current 66.4% (as of March 2026), pushing it closer to the 70% legal ceiling. The FY2027 budget is projected to run a 4% deficit. Unless GDP expansion accelerates, Thailand’s fiscal stability may weaken, potentially driving up domestic bond yields. If stimulus measures fail to generate sufficient economic growth, long-term fiscal sustainability could become a key concern for investors.
