ASL Securities maintains a positive outlook for PTT Oil and Retail Business Public Company Limited (SET: OR), expecting continued growth in its Lifestyle segment to drive net profit expansion in the first quarter of 2026.
The brokerage estimates OR’s net profit for 1Q26 to stand at THB 2.5 billion, representing an increase of 21.1% quarter-on-quarter but a decrease of 42.5% year-on-year. Total sales for the period are projected at THB 168 billion, up 8.5% QoQ but down 7.5% YoY.
On a quarterly basis, the Mobility business is expected to benefit from the heightened volatility in global oil prices, resulting in stock gains and increased demand as customers accelerated fuel purchases in early March.
Meanwhile, the Lifestyle business, particularly Café Amazon, is anticipated to continue its stable growth with the expansion of new outlets, enabling the company to achieve greater economies of scale. This is reflected in SG&A to sales declining to 3.3% from 4.6% in the previous quarter, which supported an increase in EBITDA margin to 3.1%, up from 2.9%.
However, on a year-on-year basis, performance is expected to slow, particularly due to reduced revenue from Cambodia. OR is currently reviewing its strategy to decrease its dependence on the market. The forecasted first-quarter net profit accounts for 22% of the analyst’s full-year estimate.
Looking ahead to 2Q26, ASL anticipates a slowdown in both QoQ and YoY net profit, despite seasonal support from increased traffic at service stations during the Songkran festival, which should benefit revenue from both the Lifestyle and Mobility businesses, as well as from aviation fuel trading.
The expected drag on performance comes from three main factors: (1) higher global oil prices are likely to result in stock losses and lower sales volumes, although government policy adjustments to marketing margins are being implemented to align with global prices; (2) slower sales in the Global business, also due to rising oil prices, though revenues from the Philippines are expected to partially offset this impact; and (3) reduced consumer purchasing power in the Lifestyle segment due to an economic slowdown, alongside higher operating expenses tied to Café Amazon’s ongoing outlet expansion for long-term unit cost reduction.
ASL maintains a ‘Buy’ recommendation for OR, with a target price for 2026 of THB 15.00 per share. This valuation is based on an EV/EBITDA multiple of 10.2x, which is close to the five-year historical average of 11.5x minus 0.5 standard deviation. The current trading level is at an EV/EBITDA of 6.2x, which is discounted due to ongoing oil price volatility and its inflationary impact on the economy.
The brokerage highlights OR’s strong market leadership in oil retail and stable profit generation in the Lifestyle business, as underscored by ROA and ROE at 5.7% and 9.9%, respectively. The company’s long-term growth prospects remain robust thanks to its focus on cost efficiency and investment in oil pipeline infrastructure, which is expected to reduce transportation costs and enhance operational efficiency.
The positive sentiment from increased holiday traffic during Songkran is anticipated to further boost both the Mobility and Lifestyle segments, with ASL Securities also expecting a dividend yield of 5% for 2026.
