Yuanta Securities (Thailand) has issued its latest analysis on Carabao Group Public Company Limited (SET: CBG), forecasting that the company’s normalized profit in the second quarter of 2026 is expected to recover sequentially, but remain lower year-on-year for another consecutive quarter.
The brokerage estimates the profit figure will be in the range of THB 630-650 million, supported by seasonal factors. However, this marks another YoY decline, largely due to the high base in the previous year before the Thailand-Cambodia conflict began to impact operations.
Other business segments of CBG continue to show robust growth, notably within the domestic energy drink market and distribution operations, which benefit from ongoing channel expansion and proactive marketing activities.
The company has also started to recognize revenue from a new original equipment manufacturing (OEM) contract for canned carbonated soft drinks under the ‘Loveza’ brand from ‘Love Potion.’ The product has seen positive market reception, with sales reaching approximately one million cans in April.
Sales are expected to maintain momentum throughout the remainder of the year as distribution expands to 7-Eleven, Makro, and Lotus’s, on top of its original presence in CJ Mall.
Nevertheless, Yuanta anticipates that the company’s gross profit margin (GPM) will soften both QoQ and YoY, amid rising costs of key raw materials. Some of these cost pressures are expected to be partially offset by more efficient management of selling, general, and administrative expenses (SG&A).
Looking ahead to the second half of 2026, Yuanta expects CBG’s normalized profit to return to YoY growth due to the low base effect from the previous year, when the Thailand-Cambodia conflict had a negative impact from July 2025 onward. Added to this outlook are positive signs from the ‘Thai Chuay Thai Plus’ government program, the El Niño phenomenon, and further expansion by OEM clients such as Love Potion.
Yuanta also identifies the potential end of the Middle East conflict in 2H26 as an upside risk to revenue and GPM forecasts. However, for prudence, the brokerage maintains its 2026 normalized profit forecast at THB 2,574 million, reflecting a YoY decrease of 9.3%.
For 2027, the profit forecast has been revised upward by 5.4% to factor in the anticipated return to profitability in CBG’s UK business. The company is restructuring its UK operations, transitioning from finished goods sales—which resulted in losses of around THB 100 million in 2025—to partnerships with overseas distributors.
Going forward, CBG will recognize revenue from concentrate sales and royalty fees, with a return to profitability expected from the first quarter of 2027. Additionally, importers in Afghanistan plan to commence local production, which will eliminate the steep 80-90% import tax, reduce retail prices from nearly THB 30 to THB 12, and is expected to restore sales volumes to previous highs.
These developments have led Yuanta to raise its 2027 normalized profit forecast to THB 3,085 million, or 19.8% YoY growth, albeit with potential upside from concentrate sales to China or capacity expansion in Myanmar.
Yuanta has given a ‘Buy’ recommendation and raised CBG’s target price to THB 50.50 per share, using a mid-2027 valuation and increasing the price-to-earnings ratio (PER) applied for assessment to 17.9x, in recognition of the increasingly positive business outlook.
Notably, the PER still represents approximately -1.25 standard deviations from the five-year historical PE band. The current share price offers an upside potential of 20.2%, while the company’s ongoing share buyback program also helps cap downside risk.
