Phillip Securities (Thailand) has observed that downward pressure on PTT Oil and Retail Business Public Company Limited (SET: OR) has eased, following the recent conclusion of hostilities in the Middle East. Over the past two to three months, concerns related to the conflict in the region have driven crude oil prices up by over 50%.
However, earlier this week, the United States and Iran reached an agreement to end the war, resulting in a notable decline in crude oil prices. Brent crude has softened by approximately 5–6% to $79 per barrel, and a further decrease of around 10% would return prices to pre-conflict levels.
Phillip believes that the ability to resume normal oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz will alleviate concerns over oil prices. This normalization is expected to improve the capacity for domestic retail price adjustments and support the recovery of fuel marketing margins.
Although OR’s 2Q26 earnings may be partially affected by inventory losses, the brokerage anticipates that, in the short term, this development will have a positive impact on the company’s share price.
A positive outlook is maintained on OR’s lifestyle business segment, which continues to drive growth. The second quarter should benefit from the tourism season, especially during the Songkran holidays, as well as supportive measures under the ‘Thai Chuay Thai Plus’ policy aimed at stimulating domestic consumption from June to September 2026.
Given these factors, Phillip sees short-term trading opportunities arising from the recent crude oil price decline and reaffirms its longer-term ‘Buy’ recommendation for OR, with a target price of THB 14.50 per share.
