On Monday at 11:47 AM (Bangkok time), the share price of Indorama Ventures Public Company Limited (SET: IVL) rose by 3.79% or THB 0.80 to THB 21.90, with a trading value of THB 478.50 million.
According to Globlex Securities, the decline in IVL’s share price following the sharp fall in crude oil prices is considered an overreaction, deeming it as more of an ‘opportunity’ than a risk, as the cost of raw materials linked to oil—mainly for IVL’s key products like PET and polyester fibers—is expected to return to normal and gradually improve, driven by increasing demand and continued limited supply, even as the U.S.-Iran conflict has ended.
The brokerage estimates that IVL’s quarterly net profit is likely to recover strongly from the second quarter of 2026 onward, after previously being pressured by impairments, inventory losses, and low industry margins from oversupply. Key support factors include rising demand for Integrated Oxide and Derivatives (IOD), PET, and fiber products, sharply lower energy and raw material costs, and limited supply in the market due to supply chain disruptions in the Middle East.
For 2Q26, Globlex expects IVL’s EBITDA to rise significantly to $450 million (about THB 15 billion), up from $250 million (THB 8 billion) in 1Q26 and $280 million (THB 9 billion) in 1Q25. This level is also higher than IVL’s estimated quarterly EBITDA breakeven of around $300 million.
Furthermore, if there are no large one-off items, the analyst forecasts IVL’s 2Q26 net profit at a solid THB 3-5 billion, reflecting an operational recovery from lower costs and improved margins.
Looking ahead to 2Q26 and on to 2027, Globlex expects that, although the integrated PET-PTA spread will normalize from $270/ton in 2Q26 (versus $170/ton in 1Q26) to $180-200/ton, this is enough to sustain healthy net profits for IVL and support the increasing demand for IOD, PET, and fiber products. The supply of propylene (a key raw material for IOD) and aromatics (crucial for PET and PTA) remains tight due to prolonged or permanent plant closures in the Middle East from supply chain damage and raw material constraints in China.
Globlex believes the roughly 20% decline in IVL shares over the past seven weeks reflects investor misunderstanding of the company’s industry environment, which is performing better than other petrochemical segments, especially olefins and aromatics that continue to face pressure from oversupply and weak margins.
Therefore, IVL’s strong 2Q26 performance and better margins in the second half of 2026 compared to the previous year are estimated to bolster EBITDA and net profit growth, with the brokerage assigning a ‘Buy’ recommendation and a target price of THB 28.00 per share.
