Over the past month, the share price of SCB X Public Company Limited (SET: SCB) has risen from THB 137.50 to THB 157.50, representing an increase of 13.8%, amidst strong daily trading volumes. On July 10, 2026, SCB registered a trading value of over THB 4 billion, the highest in the market.
Kasikorn Securities (KS) has issued a positive outlook on SCB, upgrading its recommendation to ‘Buy’ and raising the target price to THB 162 per share. The analyst highlights SCB’s attractive dividend yield and potential for added value from improving asset quality going forward.
Although the dividend per share for 2026 is expected to decrease to THB 10.3 from THB 11.28 in 2025, the dividend yield remains appealing at approximately 6.75% for 2026 and 7.29% for 2027. Kasikorn expects SCB to maintain a high dividend payout ratio of 80% or more from 2026 to 2028, supported by a strong capital base, with the CET1 ratio projected to remain between 17.2–17.4%, even as loan growth resumes at 4% in 2026 and 2% in both 2027 and 2028.
The brokerage also sees further upside if the asset quality of Gen 2 businesses, especially CardX Company Limited, improves beyond expectations, following stricter loan approval processes in recent years. As market competition normalizes in 2026, credit costs are projected to drop to 1.56% in 2026 and 1.50% in 2027 from 1.74% in 2025.
In the longer term, Kasikorn maintains that SCB has the potential to improve operational efficiency through organization-wide adoption of artificial intelligence, leveraging its extensive customer database across both retail and corporate clients. This could enhance operations in areas such as debt collection and customer engagement, and enable the use of Enterprise AI, potentially reducing the cost-to-income ratio to below 40% within the next 5-10 years.
Kasikorn identifies three key factors that could further support SCB’s share value: credit costs in the second half of 2026 could be lower than expected as asset quality concerns ease; an increase in the dividend payout ratio during 2026–2027; and alleviation of concerns over net interest margin, should SCB demonstrate that the figure has bottomed out during the second or third quarter of 2026.
Finansia Syrus Securities (FSS) holds a similarly positive view, maintaining its ‘Buy’ recommendation and a target price of THB 170 per share. The brokerage notes that the recent rise in government bond yields, following the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance in June 2026 amid persistent inflation concerns, bodes well for the banking sector by supporting earnings and enhancing investor sentiment.
SCB’s share price has lagged behind other major banks, indicating potential for further upside. The firm also expects SCB to offer a compelling dividend yield of around 8% per year, a strong incentive for investors seeking both capital gains and regular income.
Phillip Securities (Thailand) remains positive on SCB and forecasts net profit of THB 12.9 billion for the second quarter of 2026, up 0.2% year-on-year and 26.1% quarter-on-quarter, driven by reduced interest and provisioning costs. However, lower interest income from lending rate reductions continues to be a constraint.
Quarter-on-quarter growth is anticipated to be supported by a recovery in interest income from loan growth and rising fee income. Phillip maintains its 2026 net profit forecast at THB 48 billion, a 2% increase from the previous year, and recommends ‘Accumulate’ on SCB, underpinned by its attractive dividend profile.
Fitch Ratings recently affirmed the long-term foreign currency issuer default ratings of both SCB X Public Company Limited and The Siam Commercial Bank Public Company Limited at ‘BBB’ and the national long-term rating at ‘AA+(tha)’, with a stable outlook.
Fitch has also maintained the viability ratings of both SCBX and SCB at ‘bbb’, and the government support ratings at ‘bbb’ for SCB and ‘bbb-’ for SCBX. The agency cited SCBX’s strong business profile, high capital base, solid profitability, robust liquidity and funding positions, and SCB’s significant role in Thailand’s banking sector as the rationale for its ratings outlook.
