TTB Wealth Securities highlights Gulf Development Public Company Limited (SET: GULF)’s strong position to benefit from Thailand’s new Power Development Plan. The energy titan is anticipated to secure up to 28% of total new power purchase agreements for natural gas and renewable energy projects to be auctioned over the next decade, following a similar market share of approximately 30% in the 2023 renewable energy contracts.
Excluding opportunities from new projects, GULF’s earnings per share are projected to grow by an average of 12% annually during 2027–2029, supported by a 6% annual increase in generating capacity between 2026 and 2030 from existing contracted projects. Contribution will also come from the phased commissioning of data center projects totaling 167MW currently under development. Additionally, long-term growth potential is seen from the company’s AI cloud services and infrastructure expansion in LNG.
The brokerage incorporates the assumption that GULF will win contracts totaling 15.5GW of new generating capacity over the next 10 years, primarily from gas-fired plants (4.5GW) and a 25% share in new solar (35GW) and wind (15GW) projects expected for auction by 2035. Total investment for these projects is estimated at THB 573 billion, well within GULF’s projected debt capacity of THB 1.6 trillion by 2035.
The value attributed to these new projects is estimated at THB 8.2 per share within the target price. Sensitivity analysis indicates that every 1GW variance in contract awards could affect the target price by THB 0.1/0.7/1.6 per share for solar, wind, and gas-fired projects, respectively.
The company’s core generating capacity is expected to increase from 8.7GW in 2025 to 11.5GW by 2030, underpinned by existing projects. Earnings growth forecasts stand at 13%, 11%, and 14% for 2027, 2028, and 2029, respectively, primarily from the power business, enhanced telecom profit sharing (through its 40% stake in ADVANC), and improving data center utilization rates expected from 4Q26 through 2028.
GULF is also pursuing growth beyond power generation, notably targeting the development of 2GW of data center capacity in Thailand by 2035, with the current target price already including 1GW, valued at THB 4.7 per share. Additionally, GULF is expanding its LNG infrastructure—covering import capacity of 7.8 million tons per year, pipeline investments, and a new LNG terminal with an annual capacity of 10.8 million tons scheduled to be operational by 2029, alongside potential business in LNG shipping.
As a result, the brokerage retains a ‘Buy’ recommendation on GULF, favoring the stock as a top pick in the sector, with a target price of THB 75.00 per share.
