On Monday at 11:48 AM (Bangkok time), the share price of Central Plaza Hotel Public Company Limited (SET: CENTEL) jumped by 4.55% or THB 1.75 to THB 40.25, with a trading value of THB 177.84 million.
Phillip Securities (Thailand) has forecasted CENTEL to see core profit for 2Q26 reach THB 112 million, representing a sharp decrease of 89.6% quarter-on-quarter, but a 7.7% increase year-on-year. The quarter-on-quarter decline primarily reflects the hotel industry’s low season, resulting in lower room revenues due to reduced occupancy rates.
However, improved cost management is expected to drive a year-on-year profit increase, with gross margin estimated to rise to 41.4% (from 40% in 2Q25). Despite an expected increase in the expense-to-revenue ratio to 38.3% (versus 37% in 2Q25), propelled by ongoing marketing and business expansion, the higher gross margin could partially offset the higher costs, leading to an anticipated EBITDA margin of 24.6% (up from 23.3% in 2Q25).
Total revenue in the second quarter is projected at THB 5,728 million, a 14.7% decline quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 2.3% year-on-year, driven by both the hotel and food businesses. Hotel revenue is forecast at THB 2,461 million, supported by a small year-on-year increase in RevPAR (excluding Dubai) of 1%.
Notably, hotel performance in the Maldives—both existing and new properties—is expected to improve, with an occupancy rate rising to 53% (from 31% in 2Q25). Thai hotels are also forecast to see higher occupancy at 70% (up from 66% in 2Q25), benefiting from steady demand in Bangkok despite a slower national tourism backdrop. These positive performances should help offset the weaker results in Japan, where occupancy is expected to fall to 63% (from 86% in 2Q25).
The food business is projected to generate revenue of THB 3,267 million, supported by a 2% increase in total sales and an expanded branch network, now totaling 1,510 branches (up from 1,412 in 2Q25). Consequently, the revenue split between the hotel and food businesses stands at 43:57 (versus 42:58 in 2Q25).
Historically, the Centara Mirage Beach Resort Dubai had delivered outstanding performance with occupancy rates of 80-89% and average room rates of around THB 5,000-8,000 per night, underscoring Dubai’s previous market strength. However, the Middle East conflict in March 2026 sharply reduced Dubai’s occupancy to 44% and cut RevPAR by over 66% from peak levels, making Dubai a more unpredictable risk.
Should the situation stabilize, a recovery in Dubai’s occupancy rate to 70-80% would be a significant catalyst for CENTEL’s overall RevPAR improvement. The company is expected to record a THB 15 million share of profit from investments in 2Q26, reflecting weakened Dubai operations, where CENTEL holds a 40% stake.
Looking ahead to 2H26, Phillip holds a positive outlook, anticipating a high-season tourism boost. CENTEL’s yield management strategy—reserving some rooms for last-minute bookings to command higher rates—could drive further improvements in ARR and RevPAR.
Additionally, major international events such as the World Bank and IMF meetings in October 2026, with 60-70% forward bookings for the event week, and the Tomorrowland Thailand music festival are supporting strong advance bookings, particularly at COSI Pattaya Wong Amat Beach and Centara Grand Mirage Beach Resort Pattaya, where pre-bookings are at 70-80%.
As a result, Phillip maintains a ‘Buy’ recommendation for CENTEL, with a target price of THB 42.00 per share, confident that despite seasonal impacts in 2Q26, core profit momentum will strengthen in the second half, underpinned by robust revenue management and high advance bookings for international events. A resolution in the Middle East would further boost CENTEL’s RevPAR recovery.
