On Thursday at 12:19 PM (Bangkok time), the share price of Gulf Development Public Company Limited (SET: GULF) surged 1.50% or THB 1.00 to THB 67.50, with a trading value of THB 3.47 billion.
Krungsri Securities (KSS) wrote that GULF’s performance in 2Q26 is expected to remain robust, supported by dividend income, profit sharing from power plant operations, and continued growth in the performance of its subsidiaries.
According to Krungsri, GULF’s net profit for Q2 is projected to be THB 13,354 million, representing a 79% decrease from the same period last year, but a 46% increase from the previous quarter. The year-on-year decline is mainly due to a high base effect from extraordinary profits registered in the previous year.
After excluding a one-time gain of approximately THB 1,800 million from the sale of the Pak Lay hydropower project, the company’s core profit is estimated at THB 11,554 million, which reflects a 63% increase year-on-year and a 24% increase quarter-on-quarter.
The main supporting factors for this solid performance are expected dividend income from KBANK, amounting to around THB 2,800 million from its 10% shareholding, as well as improved profit sharing from both the HKP and GJP power plant groups following a rise in electricity sales volumes.
Furthermore, profit contributions from ADVANC are anticipated to continue growing both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, reflecting strong cost control efficiency. Should 1H26 core profit align with these estimates, it would account for approximately 57% of the full-year core profit forecast.
Looking ahead to 3Q26, Krungsri expects GULF’s core profit to continue growing year-on-year, although it may decline compared to Q2. The growth is expected to be supported by the staggered commencement of new renewable power plants with a combined capacity of 354 megawatts equivalent since 4Q25, together with sustained profit growth from its ADVANC investment.
At the same time, the Jackson power plant in the United States is likely to record increased profitability both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, benefiting from a full-quarter impact of the capacity payment rate in the PJM market rising from $270 per MW-day to $329 per MW-day.
Meanwhile, core profit in Q3 may decline on a quarter-on-quarter basis, due to a reduction in dividend income from KBANK to approximately THB 400–500 million in accordance with the interim dividend payment schedule. Nevertheless, the overall outlook for GULF’s full-year 2026 core profit remains positive, with continued growth expected.
In terms of investment strategy, Krungsri maintains a ‘Buy’ recommendation for GULF, with a 2026 target price of THB 74.00 per share. The brokerage has also named GULF its top pick in the sector due to the company’s large capitalization, consistent profit growth outlook, and exposure to high-potential investment themes such as data centers and Thailand’s new Power Development Plan (PDP).
GULF possesses substantial capital strength and a sizeable debt headroom of up to THB 900 billion, putting it in a strong position to pursue new power generation investment opportunities, with further clarity expected by August 2026.
