Maybank Securities (Thailand) has upgraded its outlook for the Thai food and beverage sector, expecting a recovery in demand and profitability as cost pressures start to ease from the fourth quarter of 2026. The beverage segment stands out as among the most affected by the Middle East war, with higher oil prices pushing up packaging costs, while weak consumer purchasing power limits the ability of companies to raise prices.
Sector net profit is projected to decline 4% year-on-year in 2Q26, mostly due to packaging costs, with OSP likely to be the only company achieving year-on-year profit growth thanks to strong cost controls. Despite this, most companies should report sequential profit growth on seasonal improvements.
However, Maybank sees several supportive factors ahead. Lower packaging and transportation costs, a weaker baht, and favorable weather conditions from a prolonged El Niño phenomenon are all expected to underpin a turnaround from late 2026 and into 2027.
For 2027, CBG is forecast to post the highest sales growth at 9%, followed by SAPPE (8%), ICHI (5%), and OSP (2%). Notably, SAPPE is expected to benefit most from reduced shipping expenses and a weaker baht-to-dollar exchange due to its high export ratio, resulting in the largest projected EPS growth among peers at 16% for 2027.
Reflecting the improved outlook and cost trends, Maybank has upgraded its recommendation on SAPPE, ICHI, and CBG to “Buy,” raising their target prices to end-2027 levels of THB 45, THB 16.10, and THB 57.50, respectively. OSP maintains its “Buy” rating, supported by steady EPS growth, effective cost management, and a 5% dividend yield, with the target price raised to THB 21.50.
