Kasikorn Securities (KS) noted that while TRUE’s second quarter of 2026 earnings outperformed expectations, EBITDA growth momentum is expected to slow in the second half of the year. Meanwhile, the stock may lack positive catalysts in the short term after rising substantially over the past three years.
For 2Q26, TRUE reported a net profit of THB 6.55 billion. Stripping out special items such as foreign exchange losses, tax benefits from accumulated losses, and asset impairment, the normalized profit stood at approximately THB 6.4 billion, a 60.1% increase year-on-year and a 6% rise quarter-on-quarter.
The year-on-year profit growth was mainly supported by cost savings in spectrum operations, reduced depreciation and amortization expenses, and lower financial costs, while sequential improvement stemmed from a recovery in core service revenue and reduced operating network expenses.
Normalized profit for Q2 was 2.4% higher than Kasikorn’s preliminary forecast and in line with expectations. Profits in 1H26 represent 49.4% of the full-year estimate. Additionally, TRUE announced a quarterly dividend of THB 0.15 per share, reflecting a payout ratio of approximately 79%, and an annualized yield of around 4.2%.
Regarding the operational outlook, management lowered its 2026 core service revenue growth target from 2-3% to 1-2% due to weaker-than-expected tourism and increasing inflationary pressures. However, the company maintained its EBITDA growth target at 7-9% and its network capital expenditure budget at THB 25-27 billion.
Kasikorn suggests that core service revenue may grow around 1.9-3.9% year-on-year in the second half of 2026, compared to only 0.1% growth in the first half. EBITDA growth in H2 is expected at around 2.3-6.1% year-on-year, a slowdown from 12.2% in H1.
The brokerage forecasts TRUE’s core service revenue to grow 2.7% year-on-year in 2H26, while EBITDA is expected to grow just 0.5% year-on-year, signaling a clear slowdown in EBITDA momentum in the latter half of the year.
There are concerns regarding TRUE’s longer-term dividend sustainability. The total dividend payout in the first half was around THB 10 billion, exceeding net profit in the separate financial statement for the same period of THB 644 million. Unappropriated retained earnings at the end of 2Q26 stood at THB 15.8 billion.
In addition, the ongoing shareholder restructuring remains a factor that could weigh on investor confidence in the near term.
Nonetheless, Kasikorn maintains a ‘Buy’ rating on TRUE with a target price of THB 16.77 per share, noting that the market has absorbed much of the value from recent industry consolidation, potentially limiting significant new upside drivers in the short term.
Longer-term positives could include a narrowing valuation gap between ADVANC and TRUE if TRUE can sustain improved financial returns and pursue more proactive capital management, which could support further stock revaluation in the future.
