U.S. stocks futures displayed mixed movement on Monday as market participants weighed on surging oil prices and ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Persistent geopolitical risks, particularly surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, have kept inflationary pressure and prospects for further interest rate decisions in focus for investors.
At 4:17 p.m. (Bangkok Time), contracts linked to the S&P 500 advanced 0.15%, while futures tracking the Nasdaq-100 rose 0.47%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures edged 0.07% lower, indicating a cautious start to the week.
Geopolitical uncertainties have escalated, with the U.S.-Iran standoff entering a key diplomatic stage amid continued military activity and growing strategic stakes at the Strait of Hormuz. The government in Tehran stated that negotiations facilitated by Oman for a secure shipping corridor were making progress. However, officials clarified that any such arrangement would not lead to an immediate reopening of the vital maritime chokepoint.
Optimism that a breakthrough could restore commercial transit through the region faded over the weekend after Iranian authorities denied holding direct discussions with the U.S. regarding the reopening of the waterway. As a result, West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.13% to $79.09 per barrel on Monday, while Brent crude oil climbed 1.15% to $84.51 per barrel.
Labor market data released last week signaled further softness. Nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, defying expectations, while June’s employment figures were adjusted sharply lower, dropping from a previously reported 57,000 to 20,000 jobs. These developments influenced interest rate expectations, with the CME FedWatch Tool indicating that traders now assign a 44% likelihood of a quarter-point increase by the Federal Reserve in September, a decrease from 67% the previous week.
Investors are set to scrutinize upcoming consumer and producer price index reports for additional signals on inflation trends. No significant US economic data is scheduled for release on Monday.
Quarterly earnings results will also be in focus, particularly from leading companies in the artificial intelligence sector such as Applied Materials, Cisco, and CoreWeave. Results from consumer-oriented businesses including On Holding and Cava Group are also on the agenda for the week.
