CLSA continues to prefer CPALL and MRDIYT for their capacity to capture market share despite weak consumption, while retaining an Outperform rating on BJC. Its assessment points to an uneven retail slowdown, with convenience stores and value-focused retailers holding up better than housing-linked categories.
Retail demand in the third quarter of 2026 has weakened compared with the second quarter. CLSA attributes the deterioration mainly to persistent softness in home improvement and housing-related expenditure, rather than weakness across the entire sector.
The brokerage also expects CRC and BJC to maintain earnings growth in the second half of 2026. Tourism and seasonal factors should provide support, alongside a lower comparative base from the fourth quarter of 2025.
Meanwhile, Kasikorn Securities estimated August and quarter-to-date same-store sales growth at 0–1%. Its projected July–August average of 0.5% compares with a 0.6% contraction in the second quarter.
The brokerage said improving trading conditions had not translated into a widespread spending recovery. Purchasing power remained weak, with consumers concentrating expenditure on necessities and value-for-money products, while discretionary big-ticket and home-related purchases remained subdued.
Among essential-goods retailers, Kasikorn expected BJC’s Big C business to return to positive same-store sales growth. CPALL was forecast to deliver growth of 1–2%, supported by tourist visits and steady convenience-store demand.
Home improvement showed a sharper divide. DOHOME was expected to outperform its peers with growth of 4–6%, helped by double-digit expansion in its wholesale business. In contrast, GLOBAL and HMPRO were forecast to record declines of 5–7% and 3–5%, respectively, reflecting weak provincial purchasing power and slower residential construction.
Kasikorn projected MOSHI’s same-store sales growth at 3–4%, supported by customer traffic and affordable merchandise. CRC was expected to achieve growth of 1–3%, with food and fashion offsetting weakness in hardline products. MRDIYT’s same-store sales were forecast to remain flat.
Kasikorn’s target prices for its three preferred stocks were THB57.20 for CPALL, THB50.00 for MOSHI and THB33.00 for CRC.
