Land and Houses Securities (LHS) wrote an analysis on GFPT Public Company Limited (SET: GFPT), Thailand’s second-largest chicken exporter. The company is set to launch a new factory that will boost its slaughterhouse capacity by 51% to 444,000 birds per day, starting in the second quarter of 2027.
This expansion, supported by a THB 5 billion investment in Chonburi (half already disbursed), includes the construction of a new cooked chicken processing facility with an annual capacity of 30,000 tons, aiming to nearly double the company’s processed foods production and support long-term growth.
GFPT’s export portfolio is strengthened by its strategic focus on high-margin cooked chicken products, accounting for 86% of its export volume and targeting premium markets in Japan (51%) and the UK (26%). Joint ventures with industry leaders such as McKey (a supplier to McDonald’s across Asia-Pacific, co-owned by Tyson Foods) and GFN (in partnership with Nichirei) further reinforce GFPT’s position in supplying value-added products globally.
Looking ahead, LHS forecasts that normalised profit for 3Q26 will grow quarter-on-quarter, supported by export seasonality, domestic demand uplift from government measures, rebounding domestic poultry prices, stable low feed costs, and improving profits from joint ventures. However, profits are expected to decline year-on-year due to a high base in the previous year.
For 2026, normalised profit is projected at THB 1.99 billion, down 18.4% year-on-year, with gross profit margin softening from 16.4% in 2025 to 15.4%. The softer margin is attributed to a slight decrease in chicken prices both domestically and abroad, and a modest rise in raw material costs.
Revenue is expected to reach THB 18.16 billion, reflecting a 3.6% decrease year-on-year due to the loss of approximately 3,000 tons in exports to China following a temporary import suspension by Chinese authorities. Joint venture income is also anticipated to decline significantly, with particularly weak by-product prices in the first half of the year.
Despite the dip, LHS expects normalised profit to rebound in 2027, rising by 11.7% year-on-year to THB 2.23 billion, driven by increased capacity from the new Chonburi plant.
LHS initiates coverage with a ‘Buy’ recommendation on GFPT and a target price of THB 11.70 per share, based on a PER of 7.4x (0.5 SD below the 5-year average). GFPT is also estimated to deliver a dividend yield of around 2% for 2026. Although earnings for 2026 are expected to soften compared to 2025, the company’s focus on high-margin exports and stable feed costs should underpin ongoing robust performance.
