On Thursday at 11:36 AM (Bangkok time), the share price of Bangkok Commercial Asset Management Public Company Limited (SET: BAM) gained 4.72% or THB 0.30 to THB 6.65, with a trading value of THB 284.21 million.
InnovestX Securities wrote that BAM’s debt collections are expected to rise significantly in 2H26, supported by four medium-sized transactions and potential upsides from two large deals. Furthermore, BAM is in the process of establishing additional joint venture asset management companies (JVAMCs) in partnership with commercial banks.
InnovestX maintains its 2026 profit forecast at THB 1.6 billion (-11% YoY), expecting profit in 2H26 to jump by 140% HoH and 281% YoY. A ‘Neutral’ recommendation is reiterated, with a mid-2027 target price of THB 7.00 per share (DDM-based), citing strong dividend yields of 7%.
BAM forecasts debt collections of THB 5-6 billion per quarter in 3Q26 and 4Q26, compared to THB 3 billion in 1Q26 and THB 3.5 billion in 2Q26. This improvement is driven by four medium-sized deals worth approximately THB 1.2 billion (THB 400 million from two NPL deals and THB 800 million from two NPA deals), along with a delayed collection of THB 500 million shifting from 2Q26 to 3Q26.
BAM expects total collections in 2026 to be at least THB 16.5 billion, below the 2026 target of THB 17.9 billion and down 8% from the exceptionally high base of THB 17.9 billion in 2025. Upside potential exists from two large deals involving Soneva Kiri Resort in Koh Kood and Indra Regent Hotel in Pratunam.
The company is also progressing with the establishment of three new JVAMCs with commercial banks, expecting to finalize two deals in December 2026 and one more in 1H27. Currently, BAM operates two JVAMCs – Ari AMC (in partnership with Government Savings Bank focusing on unsecured loans) and Arun AMC (with Kasikornbank, focusing on secured loans). In the first half of 2026, BAM recognized a THB 72 million equity profit from these ventures, with a medium-term profit contribution target of about THB 100 million annually from each JVAMC.
To reduce reliance on large transactions, BAM aims to achieve sustainable profit through three avenues: 1) steady net profit of THB 350-400 million per quarter (excluding large deals), 2) profit sharing of THB 400-500 million from 4-5 JVAMCs, and 3) an additional THB 200 million from other sources such as strategic partnerships and cost savings.
InnovestX views these targets as challenging and keeps its 2026 earnings estimate at THB 1.6 billion, with a forecasted dividend per share for 2026 of THB 0.45 (90% payout), compared to THB 0.5 in 2025 (89% payout), reflecting a robust dividend yield of 7%. The company also plans to begin paying interim dividends in 2027.
