KGI Securities (Thailand) maintains a positive view on Central Plaza Hotel Public Company Limited (SET: CENTEL), citing strong demand and higher room rates as key drivers for the company’s hotel business.
For the third quarter of 2026, on-the-book revenue per available room grew by mid-single digits year-on-year, recovering from a 10% decline in the previous quarter. Growth was particularly strong in Thailand, with high single-digit gains in Bangkok and high-teens growth in upcountry locations. The Maldives also saw around a 20% rise, offsetting a mid-teens decline in Japan.
Looking to Q4, RevPAR is forecast to see low single-digit growth, supported by Thailand and a substantial 30% rise in the Maldives. Japan is expected to rebound, with mid-teens growth projected, especially as the peak season approaches in December.
Notably, the brokerage noted that recent flooding in Bangkok and Pattaya had a minimal impact on CENTEL, affecting less than 1% of monthly revenue, while Golden Week bookings continue to rise. The company anticipates further strength in hotel operations in the second half of 2026.
In the food business, same-store sales growth was flat year-on-year for July–August. While July posted low single-digit growth, August saw a similar decline. This is mainly due to the Thai Helps Thai Plus scheme. Year-to-date, SSSG remained in low single-digit territory, bolstered by brands like Katsuya and Ootoya.
CENTEL has implemented tighter control over costs and locks in key raw material prices months in advance, helping to stabilize expenses. Promotional campaigns are expected to sustain customer traffic and support margins.
For 2027, KGI highlights growth catalysts including the reopening of major renovated hotels, an improving outlook in the Maldives, and earnings recovery in Japan as RevPAR returns to growth. The new Maldives hotel, which is expected to turn profitable in 2026, will further enhance earnings next year.
These factors are expected to drive both quarterly and annual earnings growth through the remainder of 2026 and into 2027. As a result, KGI maintains an ‘Outperform’ rating for CENTEL, with a 2027 target price of THB 49.00 per share, based on 11x 2027 EV/EBITDA, 0.5SD below the company’s historical average.
