Mr. Chaiyot Jiwangkul, Assistant Director of Securities Analysis at Krungsri Securities (KSS), during the “Kaohoon” program on October 7, 2026, stated that in the short term, the Thai stock market faces potential downward pressure following declines in Asian technology shares across Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, which could negatively impact Thai electronic components stocks that previously served as key index drivers.
The previous rally in the SET Index toward the 1,580-point mark was significantly supported by electronics equities as well as refinery and petrochemical stocks. Consequently, as regional technology shares weaken, short-term pressure on the Thai benchmark is likely to materialize.
Meanwhile, positive domestic drivers remain relatively limited, leading investors to place greater weight on external factors, particularly the movement of U.S. Treasury yields, crude oil prices, and geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran, alongside the upcoming third quarter 2026 earnings announcements from Thai listed firms.
Regarding commercial banks, Mr. Chaiyot noted that overall 3Q26 earnings projections remain favorable but vary across individual institutions. Banks with high proportions of fee-based and investment income are positioned to maintain stronger earnings momentum, whereas institutions with larger retail loan portfolios require continued monitoring due to the impact of recent flooding and consumer spending trends.
Overall banking sector profits show potential for quarter-on-quarter growth, though year-on-year comparisons may reflect a slowdown for certain banks due to a high base in the prior year.
Looking ahead to the fourth quarter of 2026, sectors expected to perform strongly on seasonal tailwinds include tourism and hotel, while select food export stocks—such as meat and food products—may maintain positive momentum carried over from the third quarter.
Addressing recent selling pressure on MINT and hotel stocks, Mr. Chaiyot assessed that the primary driver was investor concern over the proposed foreign tourist fee of approximately THB 450, rather than epidemic-related anxieties.
However, KSS estimates that the fee is unlikely to significantly impact overall tourist arrival numbers, as inbound travelers already have established travel plans and the fee amount is not high enough to alter travel decisions. Nevertheless, the brokerage acknowledged that short-term market sentiment toward tourism and hospitality equities could be temporarily affected.
Regarding investment strategy, KSS maintains a “Selective Buy” recommendation targeting specific sectors and individual equities. Sectors retaining positive momentum include refineries and petrochemicals, supported by unresolved Middle East tensions and export restrictions on certain refined petroleum products by several nations, which should help sustain refining margins and petrochemical spreads at elevated levels. Top picks within this group include TOP and PTTGC.
Meanwhile, third quarter earnings for the electronics sector are projected to be favorable, with recommended stocks including KCE and DELTA.
Mr. Chaiyot also highlighted risks associated with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hovering near 5.3%, noting that a continued rise in bond yields would pose a clear headwind for capital markets. Due to high U.S. government debt levels, higher interest rates elevate interest payment burdens and reduce fiscal flexibility for economic stimulus measures.
Additionally, higher financing costs could weigh on investments in artificial intelligence and data centers, which are currently in an intensive investment phase requiring substantial capital, potentially lowering the financial return of future investment projects.
The impact extends to the Thai stock market through interest rate differentials between the U.S. and Thailand, which strengthen the U.S. dollar, weaken the Thai baht, and increase the likelihood of foreign capital outflows from Thai equities.
Financial markets currently price in the possibility of one additional Federal Reserve interest rate hike in December; however, if rate increases persist beyond current market expectations and Fed signaling, it will remain a critical factor to watch due to its potential to intensify pressure on global risk assets.
