Thailand’s stock market is entering an earnings upgrade cycle, with record second-quarter profits and accelerating artificial intelligence investment supporting higher earnings forecasts for 2026 and 2027, according to Krungsri Securities (KSS).
Thai listed companies reported combined net profit of THB 365 billion in the second quarter of 2026, up 12% year-on-year and 6.7% quarter-on-quarter. The record result exceeded market expectations by 13%.
KSS highlighted two positive aspects of the results: stronger-than-expected earnings create scope for further earnings-per-share upgrades, while the recovery is spreading across industries, particularly those benefiting from business upcycles, capital expenditure cycles and supply shortages.
However, the recovery remains K-shaped, with companies exposed to higher energy costs and weak purchasing power continuing to report soft performance.
The second quarter marked the sixth consecutive quarter of YoY profit growth, the longest streak since the third quarter of 2011.
KSS sees scope for earnings to continue expanding in the third and fourth quarters of 2026, potentially extending the run to at least eight quarters. Supporting factors include a low earnings base in the second half of 2025, a prolonged war scenario keeping crude oil prices elevated at $95-110 a barrel, and growth across several industries, particularly those linked to AI capital expenditure.
The brokerage expects continued AI investment to benefit electronic components companies. These earnings drivers could strengthen the SET’s appeal as a market offering earnings quality during a period when interest rates are expected to remain high without rising further.
KSS noted that previous sustained earnings growth periods were also associated with investment cycles.
From 1Q10 through 3Q11, market profits grew YoY for seven consecutive quarters, supported by the post-global financial crisis recovery, major central banks’ quantitative easing, global liquidity and Japanese production relocation.
An earlier cycle delivered 12 consecutive quarters of growth between 3Q03 and 2Q06. That expansion coincided with China’s acceleration after joining the World Trade Organization, growing global trade and foreign direct investment into Thailand’s automotive industry.
KSS considers the current cycle more similar to the 2003-2006 investment boom than a short-term recovery. It cited accelerating Board of Investment-related activity and foreign direct investment, data centers and digital infrastructure, China+1 production relocation, electricity and energy-security investment, recovering business lending, and public infrastructure spending.
KSS said the Thai benchmark’s EPS estimates for 2026 and 2027 have turned decisively upward since early 2026 as results repeatedly exceeded expectations, following an earlier downgrade trend between 2022 and 1Q25.
Consensus EPS for 2026 has recovered from a low of approximately THB 94 to around THB 110, while the 2027 estimate has risen to approximately THB 115 – 116, indicating expectations for earnings growth to continue next year.
